Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 6-1 on Colonial’s opening day

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, July 9 at Colonial Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with analysis of the $2,400 Pick 5 carryover at Penn National.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs every racing day in July.
• 8x Points at Colonial Downs: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Colonial Downs each Wednesday in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $100 Colonial Downs Feeder to 7/14 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Assiniboia Downs Feeder to 7/20 Woodbine BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Since 2023, trainer Mary Lightner has compiled a 4-for-11 (36%) record saddling experienced juveniles at Colonial Downs.

This lofty win percentage bodes well for #4 Chance to Party (6-1). The two-year-old filly debuted with a pacesetting third-place finish in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Since Lightner strikes at a lofty 31% rate with second-time starters, Chance to Party figures to move forward at Colonial and challenge for victory at enticing odds.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Chance to Party (6-1)
• #10 Genecho (7-2)
• #1 Christmas Jones (5-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Chance to Party

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#1 Mischief Mania (2-1) debuted with a respectable third-place finish in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Since high-percentage trainer Brad Cox wins at a 30% rate with horses running long for the first time, Mischief Mania has a strong chance to graduate while stretching out over one mile.

Let’s single Mischief Mania to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Mischief Mania (2-1)
• #4 Jr Jimmy (6-1)
• #6 Maker and Sons (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 1 with 5

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#3 Coaster (3-5) is an odds-on favorite after finishing a pacesetting fifth (beaten only 4 1/4 lengths) in a $125,000 allowance optional claimer dashing six furlongs at Churchill Downs. But that race was restricted to three-year-olds, and this Horseshoe Indianapolis allowance is open to older horses.

Speaking of which, four-year-old #5 Esprit Enchante (4-1) has upset potential. Formerly based in Southern California, this 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) participant scored her lone victory in a 6 1/2-furlong dirt sprint. She’s been freshened for 10 months and should appreciate changing configuration after a series of defeats running long on turf.

Let’s bet Espirit Enchante over Coaster in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 Esprit Enchante (4-1)
• #3 Coaster (3-5)
• #6 Army Girl (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 3

Carryover Watch

Penn National: Race 2: $2,400 Pick 5 carryover (6:14 p.m. ET)

A couple of double-digit upsets ensured that no one solved the $1 Pick 5 at Penn National last Saturday, yielding a $2,400 Pick 5 carryover into Wednesday’s card.

The sequence gets started in Race 2, a $10,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #1 Gala Dancer (7-2), runner-up in a five-furlong $25,000 maiden claimer at Penn National last month, is a logical favorite while descending in class. Take note, trainer Flint Stites wins at a powerful 35% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Gala Dancer’s stiffest challenge could come from #7 Zippy Do Da Day (4-1), who has cracked the trifecta in six straight $10,000 and $12,500 maiden claimers. But Zippy Do Da Day is a 0-for-17 maiden with a tendency to settle for minor awards, so Gala Dancer—who has only run three times—has more upside and might be a viable Pick 5 single.

In contrast, we wouldn’t dare recommend a single in Race 5, a $16,000 starter optional claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Although only five horses have entered, the race looks absolutely wide-open on paper, and every entrant is listed at odds between 5-2 and 7-2 on the morning line. We might give the slightest edge to #2 Cody Pass (5-2), who should have enough tactical speed to work out a favorable trip in this largely paceless field. But truthfully, it may be necessary to hit the “all” button to feel good about surviving Race 5.

Bettors should be able to go narrower in Race 6, the closing leg of the Pick 5. It’s a $5,000 claimer for horses racing one mile and 70 yards on dirt. We suggest including two contenders: #1 Copperhead Creek (3-1), runner-up in a $5,000 claimer over this trip at Parx Racing last month, and #7 Rustys Gfivefifty (5-2), recently victorious by seven lengths in a $4,000 claimer over this track and distance. Copperhead Creek is more consistent, but Rustys Gfivefifty has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, so they’re both worth using.

Good luck!