Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 8-1 at Churchill and Indianapolis

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Nov. 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, including a pair of 8-1 longshots

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 11/8 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $100 Charles Town Feeder to 11/16 Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Brendan Walsh has compiled a 2-for-8 (25%) record debuting two-year-olds in turf routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

This bodes well for #5 Venus d’Oro (8-1). The daughter of Bolt d’Oro has put together a lengthy work tab in Kentucky and has the pedigree to shine at a mile on grass.

Under jockey Evin Roman (a 38% winner teaming up with Walsh over the last two months), Venus d’Oro is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also play her over fellow first-time starter #11 Royal Reign (10-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #5 Venus d’Oro (8-1)
• #11 Royal Reign (10-1)
• #12 But Seriously (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Venus d’Oro
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 11
  Total: $25

Churchill Downs: Race 7: $100,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 3:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Scuffle (8-1) made his dirt debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland last month. He showed some tactical speed before tiring to finish seventh against a deep field including next-out Bowman Mill S. winner Gallivant.

Dropping in class for a $100,000 maiden claimer should help Scuffle vie for victory in his second dirt start. Stretching out over 1 1/16 miles could help too, since he’s a son of 1 1/16-mile CashCall Futurity (G1) winner Violence out of a mare by 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) conqueror Blame.

Let’s try a win bet on Scuffle.

Selections

• #9 Scuffle (8-1)
• #5 Mister Punch (9-2)
• #7 Reckless (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Scuffle

Churchill Downs: Race 9: $150,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:55 p.m. ET)

#10 Mayweather (4-1) ran well in his first two starts against maiden special weight competition on dirt. He finished second and third, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 73 and 72 that fit well against this $150,000 maiden claiming field.

If you draw a line through Mayweather’s recent misfire in a maiden special weight on turf, his form is strong enough to warrant a win bet. It’s encouraging to note trainer Michael McCarthy wins at a powerful 27% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

Selections

• #10 Mayweather (4-1)
• #7 Into Battle (6-1)
• #4 Zun Day (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Mayweather

Good luck!