Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $31,372 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Nov. 12 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in Aqueduct’s $31,372 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Aqueduct Feeder to 11/22 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 11/15 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 6: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 3:26 p.m. ET)

Trainer Brian Lynch wins at a strong 27% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, an angle that applies to #2 Coal Fired (6-1).

Coal Fired has put together a lengthy work tab highlighted by quick half-miles from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 1/5 and :48. Let’s try a win bet on the gray juvenile, then add an exacta using #4 Mountain High (9-5) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Coal Fired (6-1)
• #4 Mountain High (9-5)
• #5 Alter Boy (15-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #2 Coal Fired
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 4
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#5 Hotline Iris (3-1) ran well in her debut over this track, distance, and class level. She tracked the pace in second position before battling on to hold the place spot by a half-length over #6 Timeless Justice (12-1).

Hotline Iris earned a 62 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (60) for Wednesday’s conditions. If she improves at all in her second start, she’ll be a formidable win contender.

Let’s bet Hotline Iris to win and key her over #10 Sweet Summertime (7-5) and Timeless Justice in a trifecta.

Selections

• #5 Hotline Iris (3-1)
• #10 Sweet Summertime (7-5)
• #6 Timeless Justice (12-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #5 Hotline Iris
• $4 Trifecta: 5 with 6,10 ($8)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 5:47 p.m. ET)

Trainer Riley Mott has been hot at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, going 4-for-15 (27%). That includes a 1-for-4 (25%) tally with first-time starters.

Mott’s unraced filly #1 Image of Grace (8-1) enters off a lengthy work tab in Kentucky and is worth a win bet if her 8-1 morning-line odds hold up. Take note, she’s a daughter of Gun Runner, who sires an excellent 16% winners from first-time starters.

Selections

• #1 Image of Grace (8-1)
• #7 Jenny Lake (7-2)
• #5 Quality Ami (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Image of Grace

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 4: $31,372 Pick 6 carryover (1:40 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Wednesday’s $31,372 carryover in the $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct, you’ll have to solve a massively difficult sequence of races.

All six races have drawn a minimum of eight entries. Plus, there are 17 also-eligible entrants, including seven entered for the main track only. Even after you exclude the also-eligibles from the count, the Pick 6 sequence contains 61 horses (averaging about 10.2 per race) and 1,036,800 possible outcomes.

There’s a good chance the Pick 6 will go unsolved again on Wednesday, triggering a double carryover into Thursday’s card. Of course, there’s also a chance some enterprising bettors (perhaps us!) will solve Wednesday’s sequence and cash huge payoffs.

It will help if we can identify a trustworthy single to build tickets around. Finding such a single in a Pick 6 this competitive is anything but easy, but we’ll give it our best shot with #10 Salt Princess (3-1) in Race 6, a $75,000 maiden optional claimer for juvenile fillies racing 1 1/16 miles on turf.

Salt Princess is a bit unlucky to still be a maiden. She’s run twice on turf over this distance and class level at Aqueduct, and both times she finished second narrowly. On Sept. 14, she closed from a couple lengths off the pace to miss victory by a head. On Oct. 4, she dropped more than five lengths off the early tempo, rallied to lead in midstretch, and then failed by only a nose to hold first place.

Salt Princess owns the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in Wednesday’s field and should be tough to beat in her third try at this class level. She has enough tactical speed to work out a favorable trip in this largely paceless race, and she’s reuniting with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who rode Salt Princess on Sept. 14.

Salt Princess certainly won’t be an odds-on favorite, and some bettors will hesitate to single her while facing a full field. But she holds enough of an edge on paper over Wednesday’s rivals that budget-conscious Pick 6 bettors can consider her a viable single option.

A win bet on Salt Princess is also in order:

• Race 6: $25 to win on #10 Salt Princess

Good luck!