Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill price plays

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Sept. 23 at Churchill Downs and Presque Isle Downs, along with horses to play in Super High 5 carryovers at Churchill and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,000 Exacta Hit It and Split It at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in and hit two exactas at Horseshoe Indianapolis for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each racing Wednesday in August and September.
• 15% Profit Boost Tokens at Churchill Downs: Opt in to receive five 15% Profit Boost Tokens (maximum boost of $25 per token) for win wagers at Churchill Downs on Wednesday, Sept. 23.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $86 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 9/26 Laurel Park Autumn Challenge
• $72 Horseshoe Indianapolis Bet and Set Feeder to 9/25 Churchill Downs KFC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $150 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 9/26 Churchill Downs KFC/BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $120 Mountaineer Feeder to 10/3 Keeneland KFC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 5: $150,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#9 Soul of the Night (5-1) debuted with a fifth-place finish in a maiden special weight dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf at Ellis Park. She was beaten only 6 1/2 lengths by Seneca Park, who returned to win her next start in the Untapable S. at Kentucky Downs.

Soul of the Night’s pedigree suggests she may improve while switching from turf to dirt. Dropping in class should help her chances too, and it’s encouraging to note trainer Brad Cox wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters.

Let’s place a win bet on Soul of the Night.

Selections

• #9 Soul of the Night (5-1)
• #1 Greatest Blaze (12-1)
• #8 Passage Du Desir (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Soul of the Night

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 3:48 p.m. ET)

#5 My Boy Gary (8-1) showed some ability when debuting in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer racing one mile on turf at Colonial Downs. He rated off the pace before passing a couple of rivals to finish third.

As a son of Haskell (G1) winner Girvin, My Boy Gary is eligible to take a step forward while trying dirt. At 8-1, he’s worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #5 My Boy Gary (8-1)
• #9 Good Hand (10-1)
• #7 When I Go (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 My Boy Gary

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 4:24 p.m. ET)

The fastest entrant in this field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective is #2 Grande Dunes (7-2). He earned a 65 when finishing second in his Sept. 7 debut at this track, distance, and class level.

Trainer Eoin Harty wins at a 28% rate with horses running long for the second time, and hot apprentice jockey Luke Hoskins (who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance) retains the mount, so there’s a lot to like about Grande Dunes.

We’ll bet Grande Dunes to win, then key him over #4 Hide N Watch (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #2 Grande Dunes (7-2)
• #4 Hide N Watch (3-1)
• #3 Windhurst (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Grande Dunes
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 4
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $7,527 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

Assuming there aren’t any scratches in Wednesday’s opening race at Churchill Downs, it will feature a $7,527 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 1 is a $20,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Seven horses have entered, which is the minimum necessary for Super High 5 wagering to be offered.

#5 My King Air (7-5) is the morning-line favorite. He’s cutting back in distance after tiring to finish sixth in a 1 1/16-mile $20,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs, for which he earned a respectable 76 Brisnet Speed rating. He was claimed out of that race by Joe Sharp, a 22% winner with new claiming acquisitions and a 42% winner at Churchill Downs this meet.

But don’t underestimate #2 Problem Solved (9-5) as a win threat. His last two starts in dirt sprints have yielded a fourth-place finish in a $20,000 maiden claimer and a runner-up effort (beaten only a nose) in a $16,000 claimer. Those efforts yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 79, suggesting Problem Solved is fast enough to spring a mild upset against My King Air. Consider boxing these two in the top two slots of your Super High 5 ticket(s).

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: $5,067 Super High 5 carryover (4:45 p.m. ET)

Horseshoe Indianapolis also has a Super High 5 carryover up for grabs on Wednesday: a $5,067 prize pool in the 10-cent “Grand High 5” Super High 5.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 6, an allowance for Indiana-bred fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. #3 I Forgot It (3-1) is the morning-line favorite and a formidable win threat.

I Forgot It has been sharp in her last couple of starts at Horseshoe Indianapolis. First, she launched a last-to-first rally to trounce five fellow Indiana-breds by 5 1/4-lengths in a 1 1/16-mile allowance on dirt. Then she switched to turf and rallied from far back to take a one-mile allowance for Indiana-breds by 1 1/2 lengths.

In the latter race, I Forgot It finished strongly, clocking her final quarter-mile in :23.31 per the Equibase GPS result chart. A similar performance on Wednesday should give I Forgot It a strong chance to snag her third straight win, so we recommend taking a stand and keying her on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!