Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $6,938 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Nov. 11 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including tickets for Churchill’s $6,938 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 2,000 WIN Ladder at Churchill Downs: Opt in and place $10+ single-horse win wagers in all eligible races at Churchill Downs each racing Wednesday in November. Winning wagers move you up the Win Ladder; the more races you win, the bigger your share of the $2,000 prize pool.
• 15% Profit Boost Tokens at Happy Valley: Opt in to receive five 15% Profit Boost Tokens (maximum boost of $25 per token) for win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers at Happy Valley on Wednesday, Nov. 11.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $86 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 11/14 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier
• $120 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 11/21 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $80 Mountaineer Feeder to 11/13 Churchill Downs NHC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 1:29 p.m. ET)

#5 Mo Octane (3-1) earned an 81 Brisnet Speed rating when debuting with a fourth-place finish sprinting six furlongs at this track and class level on Oct. 25. That’s the highest rating posted by any horse entered in Race 2.

As a son of Uncle Mo, Mo Octane has the potential to improve while stretching out over one mile, so let’s bet him to win and key him over #4 Salty Viking (8-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 Mo Octane (3-1)
• #4 Salty Viking (8-5)
• #1 Charging Force (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Mo Octane
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 4
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 1:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Family Crest (7-2) has finished fourth and eighth in his first two starts against maiden special weight competition on turf in Kentucky. Perhaps switching to dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis can trigger improvement from the son of Triple Crown winner Justify. Keep in mind, trainer Riley Mott wins at a 25% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt.

Let’s key Family Crest on top of an exacta using #1 True Essence (5-2) and #4 Charge Me (3-1) underneath.

Selections

• #7 Family Crest (7-2)
• #1 True Essence (5-2)
• #4 Charge Me (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 1,4 ($30)

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:27 p.m. ET)

#6 Belzoni (7-5) has competed three times against maiden special weight competition in New York and Kentucky, finishing second, fifth, and second while squaring off against talented rivals like U. S. S. Valor, Mystik Bayou, Damavand, and Barrel Roll.

In a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on Oct. 4 at Keeneland, Belzoni finished six lengths ahead of Barrel Roll, and Barrel Roll returned to dominate his next start at the same distance and class level by 7 3/4 lengths.

We’ll bet Belzoni over first-time starter #4 Torcello (5-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Belzoni (7-5)
• #4 Torcello (5-1)
• #8 Kamassa (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 4

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $6,938 Super High 5 carryover (1:00 p.m. ET)

This week’s racing action at Churchill Downs kicks off on Wednesday with a $6,938 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 1, a $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. However, the race has drawn only seven entries, and if there’s a scratch, the carryover will shift to the next race offering at least seven starters.

Assuming Race 1 keeps its seven-horse field, we recommend keying #7 Don’t Say It (9-5) on top in the Super High 5.

Race 1: Wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 3,6 with 3,4,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with ALL ($54)

If you excuse a couple of defeats during the summer in $62,500 allowance optional claimers on turf, Don’t Say It’s form is strong. In the spring, she won back-to-back $25,000 and $32,000 claimers sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt at Keeneland and Churchill Downs, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 89 and 88.

None of the other horses entered in Race 1 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 84 in their last seven starts apiece. If Don’t Say It runs another 89 or 88 while dropping in class for her return to dirt, she should be tough to beat.

Underneath, we’ll emphasize #3 Best Cupcake (3-1) and #6 Vicki Rose (4-1).

Best Cupcake is descending the class ladder after finishing second in a seven-furlong $25,000 claimer at Churchill Downs, earning an 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

Vicki Rose recently charged from last place to trounce a five-furlong allowance at Mountaineer by 2 3/4 lengths. During the spring, she wired a six-furlong $30,000 claimer at Churchill Downs by a head, earning an 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

If there’s a scratch from Race 1, then the Super High 5 carryover will likely shift to Race 2, in which we’ve already highlighted #5 Mo Octane (3-1) as our top choice. If you’re pursuing the carryover, then we recommend keying Mo Octane on top in the Super High 5. Use #4 Salty Viking (8-5) for second place and spread deeper for the remaining slots.

Race 2: Wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 4 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,3,6 with ALL ($36)

Good luck!