Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Colonial’s $2,715 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, July 16 at Saratoga and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with analysis of the $2,715 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs every racing day in July.
• 8x Points at Colonial Downs: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Colonial Downs each Wednesday in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 7/28 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Assiniboia Downs Feeder to 7/20 Woodbine BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:33 p.m. ET)

#5 Three Thirteen (9-2) is a two-year-old first-time starter from the barn of Melanie Giddings, who wins at a 20% rate with horses debuting on turf. Since 2020, Giddings has compiled a respectable 4-1-1-0 (25%) record debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Saratoga.

Three Thirteen enters off a couple of half-mile workouts over the Saratoga training track turf course, so at 9-2, he’s worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #5 Three Thirteen (9-2)
• #2 Illmatic (7-2)
• #4 Essentially Fast (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Three Thirteen

Saratoga: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 4:43 p.m. ET)

#1 Duration (2-1) has hit the board in each of his last three starts against maiden special weight competition, all racing one mile. However, he lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish line in all three of those starts.

Perhaps cutting back to seven furlongs will help this son of champion sprinter Mitole visit the winner’s circle for hot trainer Chad Brown. Let’s key him over #3 Mainstream (9-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Duration (2-1)
• #3 Mainstream (9-5)
• #2 Tap Into This (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 1 with 3

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 4:45 p.m. ET)

Trainer Kelsey Danner has been on fire at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, going 5-for-16 (31%). That includes one win from one start with a juvenile debuting in a turf sprint.

Perhaps Danner can pick up a second such win with #6 Dewy’s Denali (6-1), a son of two-year-old Grade 1 winner Violence. Dewy’s Denali’s dam is Snow Top Mountain, who won multiple graded stakes on turf.

Dewy’s Denali showed some speed when breezing half a mile from the Turfway Park starting gate in :47 4/5 earlier this month, so under hot jockey Adam Beschizza (a 31% winner teaming up with Danner over the last two months), the gray colt warrants a win wager.

Selections

• #6 Dewy’s Denali (6-1)
• #9 Tiempos Buenos (7-2)
• #1 Gosh Sakes (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Dewy’s Denali

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $2,715 Pick 6 carryover (2:00 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Colonial Downs kicks off with a $2,715 carryover up for grabs in the elusive 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6.

Large, competitive fields make the Old Dominion 6 difficult to hit on a typical day. Take today’s sequence as an example. Before scratches, the six races feature 59 horses (averaging 9.8 per race) and 786,240 possible outcomes.

However, the weather may significantly impact the Pick 6. There’s a thunderstorm chance for Wednesday at Colonial Downs, and if rain forces the grass races to switch to turf, scratches will surely abound. Pending the weather, four of the six Pick 6 legs are slated for grass.

That includes Race 4, a $16,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles over the outer turf course. If it stays on grass, #10 American Kestrel (2-1) is worth a long look; she’s dropping in class off a fifth-place finish in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Aqueduct. On dirt, #2 Palace Lights (15-1) could surprise at a price. She’s been competing on turf and synthetic as of late, but in her debut at Churchill Downs last fall, she ran second in a $30,000 maiden claimer on dirt.

Another outer turf event is Race 6, a $16,000 claimer taking place over 1 1/8 miles. Whether it gets rained off the turf or not, #2 Inchon (3-1) is a win threat. Two starts back, he finished second in a $25,000 claimer on grass at Laurel Park. Last time out at Delaware Park, he finished a close third in an off-the-turf $25,000 starter optional claimer. Dropping in class should make Inchon formidable for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Jorge Ruiz and Graham Motion.

Race 8 is an inner turf allowance for three-year-olds who have never won two races. Top turf contenders include #2 English Law (4-1), #5 Antisocial (3-1), and #7 Magic Pathway (7-2). Antisocial has solid dirt credentials too, but he could be challenged by #4 Pediatrician (30-1) and #6 Big Tankness (10-1), who have posted sharp maiden wins on dirt.

The Pick 6 ends with Race 9, a $50,000 starter allowance for fillies and mares racing one mile over the inner turf. #5 Leo Toro (5-2) is a logical favorite on either surface. Last year, she dominated a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt by 5 1/4 lengths. And when last seen in February, she led all the way to post a three-length win in a $35,000 claimer racing one mile over the Gulfstream Park grass. She was claimed out of that effort by Saffie Joseph Jr., a 27% winner with new claiming acquisitions and a 22% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so look for Leo Toro to deliver a strong showing in her comeback.

Good luck!