Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Delaware Park’s $13,687 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, July 8 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Presque Isle Downs, along with a horse to single in the $13,687 Pick 5 carryover at Delaware Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $1,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in and hit the Late Pick 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis for a chance to split a $1,500 prize pool each racing Wednesday in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $64 Parx Bet and Set Feeder to 7/12 Saratoga BCBC Qualifier
• $80 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 7/10 Saratoga KDBC/NHC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $88 Mountaineer Feeder to 7/17 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#1 Nancy C (7-2) recently returned from a 14 1/2-month layoff in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis. After dueling for the lead, she tired to finish fourth in an eight-horse field.

Dropping down in class for her second start back can help Nancy C visit the winner’s circle for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Emmanuel Esquivel and Cipriano Contreras, who have gone 5-for-15 (33%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Let’s place a win bet on Nancy C and single her to start a small daily double.

Selections

• #1 Nancy C (7-2)
• #5 Higher Wish (5-1)
• #7 Staymistyforme (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Nancy C
• $5 Double: 1 with 3
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#3 Sinatra (2-1) has finished fifth in his last two starts sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs. One was a $50,000 maiden claimer, and the other was a $30,000 maiden claimer.

Shipping to Horseshoe Indianapolis and descending to the $20,000 level might be all Sinatra needs to break his maiden under hot jockey Summer Pauly, a 27% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. Let’s bet Sinatra to win and single him to conclude our daily double.

Selections

• #3 Sinatra (2-1)
• #4 Sorbetto (4-1)
• #5 Senor Valentine (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Sinatra

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:24 p.m. ET)

#1 Eye Candy Warrior (5-2) rarely runs a bad race, and she exits a runner-up finish in the 6 1/2-furlong Malvern Rose S. at Presque Isle Downs.

With three straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 80-84 range under her belt, Eye Candy Warrior looms as the filly to beat in Race 3. She’s already beaten older rivals at the allowance level on two occasions and can do so again on Wednesday.

A win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #3 A Case of You (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #1 Eye Candy Warrior (5-2)
• #3 A Case of You (7-2)
• #4 Thank You Amy (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Eye Candy Warrior
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Delaware Park: Race 6: $13,687 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)

The final of four 50-cent Pick 5 wagers available to play on Wednesday at Delaware Park features a $13,687 carryover.

As far as complexity goes, the carryover sequence is all over the place. The first two legs of the Pick 5 feature large fields of 10 and 12 horses. The next two are much simpler, with six-horse fields. Then the finale bounces back to 10 entries. All told, the sequence contains 44 horses (averaging 8.8 per race) and 43,200 possible outcomes—not the hardest Pick 5 we’ve ever seen, but far from the easiest.

We’ll try to reduce the complexity by singling #1 Double Edge Sword (6-5) in Race 8, which features one of the six-horse fields.

Race 8 is an $8,000 starter optional claimer taking place over 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. The conditions appear suitable for Double Edge Sword, who boasts four wins and three seconds from his last seven starts.

Double Edge Sword has been competing in $10,000 starter optional claimers. During the first quarter of the year at Fair Grounds, he sandwiched a win between a pair of close runner-up finishes. In all three of those starts, the speedy gelding earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings in the 86-87 range.

After taking a couple months off, Double Edge Sword regressed to a 79 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second in a 5 1/2-furlong $10,000 starter optional claimer on May 30 at Delaware Park. But he was beaten only two lengths, and his form was flattered when third-place finisher Cyberbeast returned to win his next start in a $10,000 claimer at Delaware.

None of the other horses entered in Race 8 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 84 in their last six starts apiece. In contrast, Double Edge Sword boasts five rating in the 86-89 range from his last six starts. If Double Edge Sword bounces back to peak form in his second start off the two-month freshening, he can deliver a comfortable victory under red-hot jockey Paco Lopez, a 40% winner at Delaware this meet.

Good luck!