Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: First-time starter at 12-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Aug. 6 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Saratoga, along with horses to play in the $1,472 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Colonial Downs $3,000 Turf Trial: Play the Colonial Downs Turf Trial (involving $10+ win bets in turf races at Colonial Downs) for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool on Wednesdays and Thursdays in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $150 Saratoga Feeder to 8/9 Saratoga/Arlington Million MMBC Qualifier
• $50 Saratoga Challenge
• $160 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga/King's Plate KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer John Ortiz has compiled an excellent 7-for-16 (44%) record debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This suggests #1 Just Deeds (12-1) is capable of outrunning his odds.

Just Deeds has put together a respectable work tab at Churchill Downs and is slated to be ridden by Dave Danilo Grisales, who has gone 2-for-8 (25%) teaming up with Ortiz over the last two months.

Let’s place a win bet on this son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Liam’s Map.

Selections

• #1 Just Deeds (12-1)
• #5 Camden Hills (7-2)
• #6 Black Hornet (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Just Deeds

Saratoga: Race 7: Birdstone S. (1 3/4 miles on dirt, 4:31 p.m. ET)

#6 Digital Ops (3-1) is an interesting contender in this dirt marathon. He’s never run farther than 1 3/16 miles, but he enjoyed his lone try over that trip in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer on Oct. 26, leading all the way to win by 1 3/4 lengths.

Digital Ops exits a pacesetting runner-up finish in a 1 1/8-mile $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Saratoga, for which he earned a career-best 101 Brisnet Speed rating. There’s a chance this son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist will thrive while stretching out significantly in distance, so let’s bet Digital Ops to win and key him over #2 Parchment Party (7-5) and #4 Lambeth (5-2) in a small trifecta.

Selections

• #6 Digital Ops (3-1)
• #2 Parchment Party (7-5)
• #4 Lambeth (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Digital Ops
• $2.50 Trifecta: 6 with 2,4 ($5)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:45 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Brad Cox has gone 8-for-23 (35%) debuting juveniles in turf races less than one mile in distance at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

This stat bodes well for #9 Mountain Wolf (9-2). A lengthy work tab capped off by half a mile in :48 4/5 should have the son of Protonico fit for a competitive debut under jockey Marcelino Pedroza Jr., a 60% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

At 9-2, Mountain Wolf is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #9 Mountain Wolf (9-2)
• #8 Drink Cornbread (8-1)
• #10 Tiempos Buenos (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Mountain Wolf

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $1,472 Pick 6 carryover (1:57 p.m. ET)

Winning a share of Wednesday’s $1,472 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs won’t be easy.

A massively difficult sequence is on tap for the 50-cent wager. Every leg of the Pick 6 has drawn at least nine horses, and counting also-eligible entrants there are 67 entries in total, averaging nearly 11.2 per race. It works out to 1,632,960 possible Pick 6 outcomes before scratches.

One of the most challenging legs of the sequence is Race 5, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs over the outer turf course. The field drew 14 entries (including two also-eligibles), and nine of them are first-time starters.

After analyzing the contenders, we recommend Pick 6 bettors use the following four horses in Race 5:

#1 Y’allreadyforthis (5-1): A daughter of More Than Ready, who has enjoyed success siring early-maturing grass stars, Y’allreadyforthis enters off a bullet half-mile workout in :47 at Colonial Downs. The bay filly warrants respect under hot jockey Paco Lopez, a 20% winner at Colonial this meet.

#7 Ironclad (5-1): Trainer Peter Eurton wins at a respectable 10% rate with horses debuting on turf. A series of sharp workouts, including bullet half-miles from the starting gate in :47 1/5 and :47 4/5, suggest Ironclad has talent. The daughter of More Than Ready will be ridden by hot jockey Ben Curtis, a 25% winner at Colonial this meet.

#11 Silver Juani (4-1): After dueling for the lead in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Colonial Downs turf, Silver Juani tired to finish third. Trainer Gerard Ochoa wins at a lofty 20% rate with second-time starters (far exceeding his 4% lifetime win rate with first-time starters), so look for Silver Juani to improve in her second try.

#12 Screen Test (6-1): A daughter of early-maturing juvenile Not This Time (who sires 17% winners on turf), Screen Test is trained by Graham Motion, who has compiled a solid 8-1-2-2 record debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Colonial Downs since 2020. A bullet half-mile workout from the starting gate in :48 3/5 last month is a positive sign for Screen Test, as is the fact she’ll be ridden by jockey Jorge Ruiz, a 43% winner teaming up with Motion over the last two months.

Good luck!