Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Huge carryovers at Saratoga, Indianapolis

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12 at Saratoga and Assiniboia Downs, along with horses to play in giant carryovers at Saratoga and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,000 Exacta Hit It and Split It at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in and hit two exactas at Horseshoe Indianapolis for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each racing Wednesday in August.
• 15% Odds Boost at Saratoga: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Saratoga each racing Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in August.
• 15% Odds Boost at GBI Racing: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at select GBI tracks from Monday, Aug. 10 through Monday, Aug. 31.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $60 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga King of the Turf Qualifier
• $120 Saratoga Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga SSBC Qualifier
• $150 Saratoga Challenge
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $88 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/14 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 3: $55,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:22 p.m. ET)

#4 R P Byrne (3-1) finished a nose ahead of #7 Lots of Kisses (7-5) when they ran second and third at this course, distance, and class level on July 12.

Lots of Kisses suffered trouble at the start and rallied from far back, but R P Byrne raced closer to a hot pace. We’re willing to bet R P Bryne can retain her edge on Wednesday.

Selections

• #4 R P Byrne (3-1)
• #7 Lots of Kisses (7-5)
• #2 Key Actress (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 R P Byrne
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $25

Assiniboia Downs: Race 1: $7,500-$5,000 Claiming (five furlongs on dirt, 8:30 p.m. ET)

On July 15 at Assiniboia Downs, #3 Tap the Parlay (8-5) was tons the best in a 5 1/2-furlong $7,500-$5,000 claimer for non-winners of three races. She led by daylight at every call and dominated by 8 3/4 lengths, earning a flashy 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

Tap the Parlay is unbeaten in non-stakes events and should be formidable while tackling a $7,500-$5,000 claimer for non-winners of four races. Let’s single her to start a daily double.

Selections

• #3 Tap the Parlay (8-5)
• #2 My Anticipation (2-1)
• #4 Hellabella (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 3 with 4

Assiniboia Downs: Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 9:00 p.m. ET)

#4 Short Speech (3-1) is dropping down in class and distance after finishing last in the Manitoba Oaks. That was a poor showing, but she previously ran second in a pair of $7,500-$5,000 claimers sprinting at Assiniboia, earning respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 68 and 62.

Short Speech looks like a good fit for Wednesday’s field, setting the stage for victory. We’ll single her to conclude our double wager, then key her over #1 Mini Glazed Donut (8-1) and #2 Casually Classy (5-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Short Speech (3-1)
• #1 Mini Glazed Donut (8-1)
• #2 Casually Classy (5-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 4 with 1,2 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: $1,756 Pick 5 carryover (2:10 p.m. ET)
Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: $78,887 Pick 5 carryover (4:14 p.m. ET)
Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: $76,709 Pick 4 carryover (4:45 p.m. ET)

A trio of multi-race wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis feature carryovers on Wednesday.

The prize pool for the 50-cent Early Pick 5 is modest: $1,756. But the 50-cent Late Pick 5 boasts a lucrative $78,887 carryover, and the carryover for the $1 Late Pick 4 is nearly as large at $76,709.

The sequences for the Late Pick 5 and Late Pick 4 encompass two stakes: Race 8, the Ellen’s Lucky Star H. for Indiana-bred three-year-old fillies, and Race 9, the Snack H. for Indiana-bred three-year-olds. Both have drawn overflow 16-horse fields, with a maximum of 12 horses allowed to start.

But take note, the Ellen’s Lucky Star and the Snack are both one-mile grass contests, and Horseshoe Indianapolis was off the turf on Tuesday. There’s more rain in the forecast for Wednesday, which means the two stakes may instead be contested over one mile and 70 yards on dirt.

If that proves to be the case, we recommend singling #6 Mister T (8-1) in the Snack. If you forgive his non-threatening efforts against tougher competition in the Indiana Derby (G3) and Lexington (G3), his form is solid. Against fellow Indiana-breds on dirt, he boasts three wins and a second from four starts. He trounced the one-mile and 70-yard Indiana Futurity by 5 1/4 lengths last fall, and two starts back he closed from behind to finish second in the 5 1/2-furlong Sagamore Sired H., beaten only by the undefeated two-time stakes winner Jr Shadow Boy.

Mister T brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and should be tough to beat if the Snack is rained off the turf.

Saratoga: Race 4: $192,498 Pick 6 carryover (2:56 p.m. ET)

The Wednesday card at Saratoga is highlighted by a massive $192,498 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, our best recommendation is #5 Brillante (4-5) in Race 5, a $35,000 claimer for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles over the inner turf course.

Trained by Chad Brown, Brillante recently returned from a long layoff in a $55,000 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct. She trailed early and was compromised by a slow pace, but nevertheless rallied to finish third, beaten only half a length.

If Brillante gets a better pace setup while dropping in class for her second start off the layoff, she can deliver a short-priced victory.

Good luck!