Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $20,386 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Oct. 14 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to play in Keeneland’s $20,386 Pick 6 carryover and $7,511 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 4x Rewards Points at Keeneland: Opt in and receive 4x rewards points on all wagers at Keeneland each racing Wednesday from Oct. 7 through Oct. 21.
• $2,000 Exacta Hit It and Split It at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in and hit two exactas at Horseshoe Indianapolis for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each racing Wednesday in October.
• 8x Rewards Points at Century Mile: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Century Mile on Wednesday, Oct. 7 and Wednesday, Oct. 14.
• 4% Cash Back on Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge: Opt in and receive 4% cash back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) entry purchased through TwinSpires when you have previously competed in any BCBC qualifier, hosted by TwinSpires or any other operator.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $72 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 10/16 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $150 Keeneland Challenge
• $40 Keeneland Challenge
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 10/17 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $80 Belmont Park Feeder to 10/23 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Presque Isle Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:18 p.m. ET)

Unraced #1 Souper Sweet Winne (9-2) enters off a solid series of workouts, including a bullet five furlongs in 1:01 3/5. Hot trainer Michael Trombetta (a 23% winner at Presque Isle this meet) strikes at a respectable 11% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, and jockey Israel Rodriguez (a 24% winner at Presque Isle this meet) has the mount.

There’s a lot to like about Souper Sweet Winne, so let’s try a win bet on the chestnut filly.

Selections

• #1 Souper Sweet Winne (9-2)
• #6 Akoya (5-2)
• #3 Mitoleon Dynamite (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Souper Sweet Winne

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:24 p.m. ET)

#8 Victory On Ice (2-1) ran well when debuting at this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 23. He rallied from seventh place to finish second, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths while earning a 64 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (63) for Wednesday’s conditions.

Trainer Anthony Granitz wins at a strong 24% rate with second-time starters, so Victory On Ice is eligible to move forward on Wednesday. We’ll bet him to win and play him over #3 Blues Rocker (9-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #8 Victory On Ice (2-1)
• #3 Blues Rocker (9-2)
• #2 Grandfather Sir (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Victory On Ice
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 3
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:12 p.m. ET)

#3 Vicky (7-2) ran well when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Presque Isle last month. She rated behind a fast pace, then seized command in the homestretch to dominate by six lengths.

The 72 Brisnet Speed rating Vicky earned is close to the par winning number (73) for Wednesday’s conditions. She has a good chance to win right back for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Addiel Ayala and Kevin Rice, so let’s bet her to win and key her over #1 Liams Fancy (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Vicky (7-2)
• #1 Liams Fancy (3-1)
• #5 Tegridy (10-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #3 Vicky
• $6 Exacta: 3 with 1
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 3: $20,386 Pick 6 carryover (2:04 p.m. ET)
Keeneland: Race 8: $7,511 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

This week’s racing action at Keeneland kicks off on Wednesday with a pair of carryovers up for grabs.

The $1 Pick 6 starting in Race 3 features a $20,386 carryover. Then in Race 8—the closing leg of the Pick 6—bettors can chase a $7,511 prize pool in the $1 Super High 5.

Pick 6 bettors seeking a single to build tickets around should check out #8 Show Time (3-2) right off the bat in Race 3, a $16,000 claimer for three-year-olds and older horses dashing six furlongs over the main track.

Show Time brings a sharp series of Brisnet Speed ratings to the table. He’s posted numbers in the 84-96 range in all 10 of his starts this year, and on seven occasions he’s earned ratings of 90 or higher. Along the way, he’s recorded five wins, including a triumph in a six-furlong allowance at Ellis Park.

Show Time misfired in his latest start on Sept. 26, finishing fifth (beaten 2 3/4 lengths) in a six-furlong $20,000 starter allowance at Churchill Downs. But his preparation for the race may have been less than ideal; after going without a timed workout for three weeks, he breezed three furlongs twice in the final week leading up to the $20,000 starter allowance, including one work just two days before the race.

Dropping into a $16,000 claimer (after posting a single three-furlong workout one week ago) should help Show Time rebound with a winning run.

Whether you’re pursuing the Pick 6, the Super High 5, or both, it’s important to solve Race 8, an allowance for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. A dozen horses have entered, and there are plenty of viable contenders, both to win and to finish in the top five.

Pick 6 bettors will want to lean on #1 Fiery Lucy (5-2), third by a neck in a recent seven-furlong allowance at Kentucky Downs, and #9 Lit Ship (7-2), who exits a fourth-place finish in the 6 1/2-furlong Lucky Lantern S. at Kentucky Downs.

But two double-digit longshots are also worth considering, especially if you’re betting the Super High 5. They are #7 Raconteuse (12-1) and #3 Neenah (20-1), who traded victories when running 1-2 in a one-mile $80,000 claimer at Churchill Downs and in a one-mile $50,000 starter allowance at Ellis Park. Both appear capable of vying for top-five finishes, and Neenah in particular could be a win threat if you forgive her recent seventh-place finish in a 1 5/16-mile allowance over the European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs.

Good luck!