Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Lucky Nea drops in class

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, March 18 at Turf Paradise and Turfway Park, including a 5-2 shot dropping in class.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Rewards Points at Tampa Bay Downs: Receive 5x rewards points on all wagers at Tampa Bay Downs each racing Wednesday in March.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Tampa Bay Downs Challenge
• $200 Tampa Bay Downs Feeder to 3/21 Louisiana Derby/Jeff Ruby KDBC Qualifier
• $40 Turfway Park Challenge
• $200 Turfway Park Feeder to 3/28 Arkansas Derby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $4,500 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 6:38 p.m. ET)

Former California campaigner #5 Lucky Nea (5-2) has earned Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70-72 range in three of her last four starts. She posted a 72 when finishing fourth in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Santa Anita, and a 70 when finishing second (beaten only a head) in an $8,500 maiden claimer at Turf Paradise.

The latter effort marked Lucky Nea’s first start at Turf Paradise. None of her Wednesday rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 66, so dropping down to the $4,500 maiden claiming level should send Lucky Nea to the winner’s circle.

A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #5 Lucky Nea (5-2)
• #8 Circle of Fire (7-2)
• #6 Voices of Autism (2-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #5 Lucky Nea

Turfway Park: Race 8: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

Pure frontrunner #1 Gun Factor (3-1) has finished second and fifth in his last two starts against $7,500 claiming competition sprinting six furlongs at Turfway. Dropping down to the $5,000 level should help him carry his speed all the way to victory. It helps that post 1 has produced a sharp 13% winners in six-furlong sprints at Turfway since Dec. 3.

Let’s bet Gun Factor to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Gun Factor (3-1)
• #7 Banidoso (7-2)
• #8 Uneven Kiel (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Gun Factor
• $5 Double: 1 with 7
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 9:55 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much pace in this field, which should suit #7 Prime Edge (3-1). The stoutly bred son of Curlin carved out the pace in a one-mile contest over this track and class level on Feb. 18 before staying on to finish third.

That race marked Prime Edge’s first start in four months. Even in defeat, he earned an 87 Brisnet Speed rating equal to the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions. Trainer Josie Carroll wins at a sharp 20% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, so let’s bet Prime Edge to win and single him to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #7 Prime Edge (3-1)
• #5 Up Country (5-2)
• #8 Zap d’Etat (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Prime Edge

Good luck!