Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mandatory-payout $276,356 Pick 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, March 25 at Tampa Bay Downs and Turfway Park, along with a single for the mandatory-payout $276,356 Pick 5 carryover at Parx Racing.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Rewards Points at Tampa Bay Downs: Receive 5x rewards points on all wagers at Tampa Bay Downs each racing Wednesday in March.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Tampa Bay Downs Challenge
• $200 Tampa Bay Downs Feeder to 3/28 Arkansas Derby KDBC Qualifier
• $40 Turfway Park Challenge
• $200 Turfway Park Feeder to 4/4 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 4:25 p.m. ET)

#2 War Beach (20-1) showed flashes of potential when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Colonial Downs turf course last July. He carved out the pace before weakening down the homestretch to finish sixth.

War Beach hasn’t raced since then, but he’s adding Lasix in his return for trainer Abaraham Gardea, who wins at a respectable 14% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Let’s try a modest win bet on War Beach.

Selections

• #2 War Beach (20-1)
• #3 Itza Teamster (8-5)
• #4 Fratellone (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #2 War Beach

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

This field doesn’t look all that tough on paper, so first-time starter #7 Go for Bourbon (6-1) has a shot to strike on debut. He’s a son of Knicks Go, who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters, and he’s trained by Doug O’Neill, a 20% winner with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level.

At 6-1, Go for Bourbon is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #7 Go for Bourbon (6-1)
• #4 My Milestone (2-1)
• #1 Paramount’s Pick (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Go for Bourbon

Turfway Park: Race 3: $50,000 Starter Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Daddario (10-1) has only run once, closing strongly to win a $50,000 maiden optional claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Fair Grounds turf course. She gained 4 3/4 lengths through the final furlong alone and earned a respectable 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

Switching to the Turfway Tapeta (which tends to favor late runners) and stretching out over 6 1/2 furlongs may put Daddario in the hunt for victory at double-digit odds. Let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #5 Daddario (10-1)
• #2 Bolt Dior (3-1)
• #1 Special Sauce (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Daddario

Carryover Watch

Parx Racing: Race 6: $276,356 Pick 5 mandatory payout (2:55 p.m. ET)

Wednesday brings the mandatory payout of a huge $276,356 carryover in the 50-cent “Philly BIG 5” Pick 5 at Parx Racing.

Mathematically speaking, this isn’t the hardest sequence to handicap. The five races have drawn a combined 37 horses before scratches, averaging only 7.4 per race. It works out to 21,952 possible Pick 5 outcomes, a manageable number.

Furthermore, we can reduce the number of possible outcomes to consider down to 3,136 just by singling #6 Shane’s Wonder (5-2) in Race 9, a $75,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-olds dashing 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt.

Shane’s Wonder debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight for Pennsylvania-breds at Parx last month. He carved out the pace over a muddy track and powered clear down the homestretch to dominate by 11 1/2 lengths.

That runaway win yielded a strong 97 Brisnet Speed rating, far and away the highest number belonging to any horse entered in Race 9. And the form was flattered when the distant third-place finisher, #3 Respighi (5-1), returned to win his next start over the same track and class level by 6 1/2 lengths.

If Shane’s Wonder runs back to his maiden win, he can cruise to victory in Race 9 and help us claim a piece of the mandatory-payout carryover.

Turfway Park: Race 10: $1,906 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of a $1,906 carryover in the $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park, you’ll have to select the top five finishers in Race 10, a maiden special weight for three-year-olds and older horses dashing 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta.

#1 Flick (3-1) looks like a reliable horse to build tickets around. He might be 0-for-10, but he’s cracked the trifecta half a dozen times.

Flick spent his first nine starts competing on dirt, but when he switched to Tapeta for a recent six-furlong maiden special weight at Turfway, he ran strongly, closing from midfield to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths. He earned an 84 Brisnet Speed rating only two points lower than the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions.

We recommend counting on Flick to finish either first or second in the Super High 5.

Good luck!