Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Parx’s mandatory-payout Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Dec. 24 at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs, along with a horse to single in the mandatory-payout $24,252 Pick 5 carryover at Parx Racing.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 4x Points at Tampa Bay Downs: Receive 4x rewards points on all wagers at Tampa Bay Downs each Wednesday in December.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Tampa Bay Downs Challenge
• $400 Tampa Bay Downs Bonus Feeder to 12/27 Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: $17,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 1:50 p.m. ET)

#5 Rosie Dozie (8-1) debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Gulfstream Tapeta, finishing 10th after briefly racing in midfield.

Dropping in class and stretching out in distance offers room for improvement, especially since trainer Tareq Moubarak wins at a 25% rate with horses running long for the first time.

Let’s try a win bet on Rosie Dozie.

Selections

• #5 Rosie Dozie (8-1)
• #1 Well Shaken (6-5)
• #6 Lucky Berry (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Rosie Dozie

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 4: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 2:15 p.m. ET)

#3 Mistrial Wind (12-1) hasn’t shown much in three starts sprinting on dirt, finishing fifth, seventh, and seventh. But those efforts came against tougher competition. Last time out, she contested a $25,000 maiden claimer.

Dropping down to the $16,000 level while switching to turf and stretching out over one mile may unlock a competitive performance from Mistrial Wind. It helps that she’ll be ridden by Samuel Marin, the runaway leading jockey at Tampa Bay Downs this meet.

Let’s try a win bet on this 12-1 longshot.

Selections

• #3 Mistrial Wind (12-1)
• #6 She’s the Rage (7-2)
• #4 Caparbia (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Mistrial Wind

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 3:15 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Arnaud Delacour has gone 7-for-22 (32%) saddling experienced horses in dirt sprints at Tampa Bay Downs.

This bodes well for #6 Start to Win (8-5). He’s placed twice against maiden special weight competition at Ellis Park and Horseshoe Indianapolis, and he exits a solid runner-up finish in a $75,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs, for which he earned a career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

Let’s bet Start to Win on top of an exacta using #5 Pacific Standard (3-1) and #2 Creed’s Vision (4-1) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Start to Win (8-5)
• #5 Pacific Standard (3-1)
• #2 Creed’s Vision (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 2,5 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Parx Racing: Race 7: $24,252 Pick 5 mandatory payout (1:35 p.m. ET)

Parx Racing is celebrating Christmas Eve with the mandatory payout of a $24,252 jackpot carryover in the 50-cent Philly BIG 5.

Mathematically speaking, this is one of the most challenging Pick 5 sequences you’ll ever come across. Before scratches, and counting also-eligible entrants, the Pick 5 contains 78 horses (averaging 15.6 per race) and 884,520 possible outcomes.

Some bettors may hesitate to seek a single in such a wildly competitive sequence. But we believe #9 Cloud in the Wind (9-2) is a viable option in Race 7, the opening leg of the Pick 5.

Best single: Race 7: #9 Cloud in the Wind (9-2)

Race 7 is a six-furlong $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who haven’t won two races since June 24. Cloud in the Wind is an easy qualifier since she hasn’t won even once during that timeframe; in fact, she arrives at Parx off four straight defeats.

But there have been extenuating circumstances. All four of her defeats came against tougher competition. Furthermore, two were dirt routes, and the other two were Tapeta sprints.

If you dig deeper into Cloud in the Wind’s racing record, you’ll find that her last six dirt sprints (all at Penn National) have been excellent:

• On May 2, 2024, she won a six-furlong maiden special weight by a neck.
• Between Nov. 13, 2024, and Dec. 2, 2024, she finished second, second, and first in a trio of six-furlong $16,000 starter optional claimers, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings in the 78-82 range.
• On May 1, 2025, she led all the way to win a six-furlong allowance for Pennsylvania-breds with a 78 Brisnet Speed rating.
• On May 22, 2025, she wired a six-furlong allowance with an 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

Getting back to sprinting on dirt might be all Cloud in the Wind needs to visit the winner’s circle. Keep in mind, her Race 7 rivals have largely struggled to crack the 80 Brisnet Speed rating plateau in recent starts. Only one has managed to do so within her last four starts, and that one—#13 Shining Spirit (4-1)—is on the also-eligible list and may not get to compete.

Take note: even while suffering defeats in dirt routes and Tapeta sprints, Cloud in the Wind managed to post a couple of 80 Brisnet Speed ratings.

For all these reasons, we rank Cloud in the Wind as a trustworthy single to start the Pick 5.

Good luck!