Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Price plays at Tampa

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Feb. 11 at Tampa Bay Downs, along with a horse to single in Aqueduct’s $37,412 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Double Rewards Points at Miami Valley: Receive double rewards points on all wagers at Miami Valley each racing Sunday through Wednesday in February.
• 3 for $3,000 Exacta Hit It & Split It at Turfway Park: Hit three exactas (in different races) at Turfway Park for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool each racing Wednesday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $160 Tampa Bay Downs Feeder to 2/14 Risen Star KDBC Qualifier
• $40 Tampa Bay Downs Challenge
• $100 Aqueduct Feeder to 2/21 Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $40 Aqueduct Challenge
• $40 Turfway Park Challenge
• $200 Turfway Park Feeder to 2/21 Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 40 yards on dirt, 1:17 p.m. ET)

#6 Violet’s Charm (8-1) has been soundly beaten in four of her five starts, but her no-show efforts came either on turf or in maiden special weights. In her lone start in a maiden claimer on dirt, Violet’s Charm finished second by a half-length while competing for a $32,000 tag racing one mile and 40 yards at Tampa.

Returning to the same track and distance while dropping down to the $16,000 level may allow Violet’s Charm to vie for victory at enticing odds. Let’s bet her to win and key her over #4 Knowledge Is Good (2-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Violet’s Charm (8-1)
• #4 Knowledge Is Good (2-1)
• #2 Lookin Lovely (8-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Violet’s Charm (8-1)
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 4
  Total: $25

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 4: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 2:18 p.m. ET)

This field hasn’t come up especially deep on paper, so #1 Gold Rules (20-1) is an intriguing longshot. He’s dropping in class after finishing sixth, seventh, and fifth in $35,000 and $25,000 maiden claimers on turf and Tapeta at Gulfstream Park.

Gold Rules has been freshened since September and is adding Lasix for his sophomore debut. He seems overpriced at 20-1, so let’s bet him to win.

Selections

• #1 Gold Rules (20-1)
• #10 Power Wrench (4-1)
• #8 Giulio Cesare (8-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Gold Rules

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 5: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:50 p.m. ET)

#7 Liv Has Rizz (12-1) is an interesting first-time starter. The son of talented sprinter/miler Coal Front is trained by Jeffrey Englehart, a 29% winner with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level.

Eight timed workouts since mid-November should have Liv Has Rizz fit for his debut. This isn’t the toughest field on paper, so a modest win bet on Liv Has Rizz is in order.

Selections

• #7 Liv Has Rizz (12-1)
• #2 Polizon (5-2)
• #9 Judy Chop (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #7 Liv Haz Rizz

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 4: $37,412 Pick 6 carryover (2:11 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct last Friday, triggering a $37,412 carryover. As a result of the Saturday and Sunday cards getting canceled due to winter weather, the prize pool is up for grabs on Wednesday.

Before scratches, the Pick 6 sequence features 59 horses (averaging about 9.8 per race) and 806,400 possible outcomes. Every race has drawn at least eight horses, so mathematically speaking, it’s not an easy Pick 6 to solve.

If you need a single to build tickets around, we have a compelling option to recommend in Race 7.

Best single: Race 7, #4 Pretty Boy Miah (2-1)

Race 7 is a maiden special weight for three-year-olds racing 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Pretty Boy Miah, a Triple Crown nominee, is the morning-line favorite and a logical choice to take home top honors.

Pretty Boy Miah has only run once. He debuted on Jan. 1 in a $75,000 maiden optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Aqueduct, and he ran a giant race. After pressing the pace and taking over the lead, he battled gamely down the homestretch to finish second, beaten only a half-length while pulling 19 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

This promising first start earned Pretty Boy Miah a strong 91 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s equal to the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions, and it’s far and away the highest number belonging to any horse entered in Race 7. None of Pretty Boy Miah’s rivals have posted a number higher than 80.

Pretty Boy Miah also has strong jockey and trainer stats in his corner. He’s conditioned by hot trainer Jeremiah Englehart, a 26% winner at Aqueduct since December and a solid 19% winner with second-time starters. Just as importantly, Pretty Boy Miah will be ridden by Manny Franco, who has gone 3-for-5 (60%) teaming up with Englehart over the last two months.

For all these reasons, Pretty Boy Miah looms as a trustworthy Pick 6 single.

Good luck!