Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Saratoga’s $158,820 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Aug. 13 at Colonial Downs, Saratoga, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a horse to single in Saratoga’s $158,820 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Colonial Downs $3,000 Turf Trial: Play the Colonial Downs Turf Trial (involving $10+ win bets in turf races at Colonial Downs) for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool on Wednesdays and Thursdays in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $160 Saratoga Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga/King's Plate KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $50 Saratoga Challenge
• $200 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/23 Travers MMBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Trainer Michael Campbell wins at a lofty 30% rate with first-time starters, as well as a 21% rate with two-year-olds. These stats suggest #3 Lady Valor (7-2) is a threat to win on debut.

A daughter of juvenile Grade 1 winner Maxfield, Lady Valor has put together a sharp work tab highlighted by a quick half-mile from the Colonial Downs starting gate in :48 3/5. At 7-2, she’s worthy of a win bet

Selections

• #3 Lady Valor (7-2)
• #5 Only You (3-1)
• #2 Peach Tie (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Lady Valor

Saratoga: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:20 p.m. ET)

When trainer Brad Cox debuts a juvenile in a turf route at Saratoga, pay attention. Since 2021, Cox has compiled a stellar 4-for-7 (57%) record with such runners.

That’s why we’re going to back Cox’s #6 Princess Celine (7-2) in this grass maiden special weight for New York-breds. The two-year-old daughter of Volatile enters off an encouraging work tab, including five furlongs from the Belmont Park training track starting gate in 1:00 2/5.

Let’s place a win bet on Princess Celine, then add a small exacta using second-time starter #5 My Devine One (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Princess Celine (7-2)
• #5 My Devine One (9-2)
• #4 She’s Country (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Princess Celine
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 5
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, no trainer has debuted more winning juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis than Randy Klopp, who has gone 12-for-76 (16%) with such runners. That’s a good sign for #6 Just Wine About It (5-2), an unraced three-year-old from Klopp’s barn.

Just Wine About It has posted sharp workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 1/5 and a bullet three furlongs from the gate in :34 1/5. Let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #6 Just Wine About It (5-2)
• #3 Estrella Brillante (2-1)
• #2 Indiana Smoke Show (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Just Wine About It

Carryover Watch

Saratoga: Race 4: $158,820 Pick 6 carryover (2:52 p.m. ET)

Wednesday isn’t typically the most interesting day of the racing week, but this Wednesday could be an exception thanks to a $158,820 carryover in Saratoga’s $1 Pick 6.

Winning a share won’t be easy. While the opening leg attracted only six entries, the rest of the races have drawn a minimum of eight horses apiece. Some of the turf races have come up especially competitive, and with a chance for rain at Saratoga on Wednesday, you’ll want to keep an eye on the weather before placing your bets. There are seven main-track-only entrants in the mix, so if any races get switched from turf to dirt, you’ll have to reconfigure your handicapping.

Finding a trustworthy single to build tickets around will simplify the ticket assembly process and reduce costs. In our opinion, the best single candidate is #7 Melle Mel (6-5) in Race 7, a $17,500 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races.

Melle Mel is a clear favorite to win the 6 1/2-furlong dirt dash, and deservedly so. She’s been running respectably against tougher competition.

Since breaking her maiden by 7 1/4 lengths in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Gulfstream Park, Melle Mel has recorded top-four finishers in the Any Limit S., a $50,000 starter allowance, and $50,000 starter optional claimer. In the latter race, contested over six furlongs at Saratoga, Melle Mel closed well to finish fourth by only 2 1/4 lengths.

Melle Mel’s last two efforts have yielded improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 85. None of her Race 7 rivals have ever earned a number higher than 83, so if Melle Mel repeats or improves upon her last effort while dropping in class and adding blinkers, she can post a comfortable victory.

Good luck!