Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: The Long Embrace can win debut

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Sept. 24 at Churchill Downs, including a first-time starter at 8-1 odds.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 2: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 1:14 p.m. ET)

#4 The Long Embrace (8-1) has a shot to win on debut. She’s shown speed in the mornings, most notably breezing half a mile from the Ellis Park starting gate in :47 3/5. Furthermore, she’s trained by Chris Hartman, who wins at a solid 18% rate with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level.

At 8-1, The Long Embrace is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #4 The Long Embrace (8-1)
• #5 Authentic Charm (6-1)
• #12 Bistineau Beauty (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 The Long Embrace

Churchill Downs: Race 6: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 3:17 p.m. ET)

#1 Tom Cat Tuesday (3-1) might be a 0-for-10 maiden, but she’s competed exclusively against tougher competition than she’ll face on Wednesday, and her four sprint tries have been respectable. Last time out, she rallied to finish third in a $30,000 maiden claimer dashing six furlongs at Ellis Park.

Dropping down to the $20,000 level might be all Tom Cat Tuesday needs to deliver victory for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Tyler Gaffalione and Mike Maker. Let’s bet her to win and play her over #2 Jinxzi (4-1) and #10 Colonel Compton (10-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Tom Cat Tuesday (3-1)
• #2 Jinxzi (4-1)
• #10 Colonel Compton (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Tom Cat Tuesday
• $7 Exacta: 1 with 2
• $3 Exacta: 1 with 10
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 7: $175,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 3:48 p.m. ET)

Last year’s West Virginia Derby (G3) and Indiana Derby (G3) winner #4 Dragoon Guard (9-5) is a bit unlucky to be 0-for-2 this season. He’s finished second by narrow margins in $100,000 and $50,000 allowance optional claimers at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Dragoon Guard enters Wednesday’s contest off a bullet five-furlong workout at Churchill Downs. His early speed should serve him well since this field lacks any clear-cut pacesetters on paper. Dragoon Guard appears to have found the perfect spot to get back to the winner’s circle.

Let’s bet Dragoon Guard over #5 Bendoog (4-1) and #6 Best Actor (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Dragoon Guard (9-5)
• #5 Bendoog (4-1)
• #6 Best Actor (7-2)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 4 with 5,6 ($24)

Good luck!