Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: The Tabulator’s sibling debuts

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, April 30 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a first-time starter at 10-1 odds.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:15 p.m. ET)

#12 Stardialed (10-1) is an intriguing longshot. The unraced daughter of Florida Derby (G1) winner Dialed In is a full-sister to The Tabulator, a debut winner who won two stakes—including the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs—as a juvenile.

Stardialed enters off a sharp half-mile workout from the Keeneland starting gate in :48 2/5 and is eligible to outrun her odds for trainer Doug O’Neill, a respectable 14% winner with first-time starters. Let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #12 Stardialed (10-1)
• #5 Baffle (9-2)
• #7 Sassy C W (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #12 Stardialed

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Allowance (one mile on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#6 Pagode (2-1) rallied from midfield to win his debut on Tapeta at Turfway Park, then switched to dirt and finished sixth with a troubled start in Aqueduct’s Gotham (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The 89 Brisnet Speed rating Pagode posted in the Gotham is by far the highest number in Wednesday’s field, so dropping in class for a Horseshoe Indianapolis allowance should send Pagode to the winner’s circle over #1 Trew Violence (6-1). We’ll place win and exacta bets accordingly.

Selections

• #6 Pagode (2-1)
• #1 Trew Violence (6-1)
• #2 El Sargento (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Pagode
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 1
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 9: William Walker S. (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:52 p.m. ET)

#11 Governor Sam (8-5) won three stakes sprinting on turf as a juvenile, in addition to finishing third by one length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). He ran especially well in the 5 1/2-furlong Indian Summer S. at Keeneland, setting blazing fractions of :20.81 and :44.06 before hanging on to win by a neck.

Governor Sam enters off sharp workouts on dirt and turf at Palm Beach Downs and should be tough to beat while making his three-year-old debut for trainer George Weaver, a 20% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Let’s bet Governor Sam on top of #1 Out On Bail (7-2) in an exacta. The latter colt won the Skidmore S. at Saratoga last summer and later finished second twice to Governor Sam, including in the Indian Summer.

Selections

• #11 Governor Sam (8-5)
• #1 Out On Bail (7-2)
• #4 Normandy Coast (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 11 with 1

Good luck!

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