Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $4,212 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Dec. 10 at Tampa Bay Downs and Turfway Park, including tickets for Turfway’s $4,212 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 4x Points at Tampa Bay Downs: Receive 4x rewards points on all wagers at Tampa Bay Downs each Wednesday in December.
• IJC and HKIR Night Bet $250 Get $50: Get a $50 bonus when you wager at least $250+ during the promotional period at Happy Valley and Sha Tin (Dec. 10-13).

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Aqueduct Challenge
• $100 Tampa Bay Downs Feeder to 12/20 Gun Runner KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $300 Turfway Park Feeder to 12/13 Turfway Synthetic Betting Championship

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 40 yards on dirt, 2:58 p.m. ET)

#8 Forever Man (9-5) has knocked heads with some tough rivals while finishing sixth, fourth, and fifth in his first three maiden special weight starts on the New York circuit. The horses he’s faced include Champagne (G1) fourth-place finisher It’s Our Time and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) third-place runner Soldier N Diplomat.

Forever Man should find the competition a bit easier at Tampa Bay Downs, where he’ll be ridden by red-hot jockey Pablo Morales. He’s been gelded since his last race and looks ready to deliver a comfortable win over #2 Pax Mundi (5-2).

Selections

• #8 Forever Man (9-5)
• #2 Pax Mundi (5-2)
• #3 Evangalina (10-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 8 with 2

Turfway Park: Race 2: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer John Ennis has compiled a sharp 7-for-30 (23%) record saddling experienced juveniles at Turfway Park. He’s sending out two such starters in Race 2, and we’ll favor #11 Carol’s Melody (15-1), the longer-priced of the pair.

Carol’s Melody has only run once, tiring to finish last in a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Ellis Park. She took two months off after that race, but has trained sharply for her return. Dropping in class should help her chances, and take note, she’s removing blinkers (a 26% winning move for Ennis) and picking up jockey Edgar Morales (a 27% winner teaming up with Ennis over the last two months).

Let’s try a win bet on Carol’s Melody.

Selections

• #11 Carol’s Melody (15-1)
• #5 Nightshade Forest (7-2)
• #12 Shez Twisted (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Carol’s Melody

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

Since 2024, trainer Kelsey Danner has saddled half a dozen first-time starters at Turfway Park. While none managed to win, three finished second, suggesting Danner’s debut runners at Turfway tend to be live.

With this in mind, let’s place a win bet on #12 Somnambulist (8-1), a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Liam’s Map. She shows a series of fast workouts at Turfway Park (including a couple of bullet half-miles), so her 8-1 morning-line odds are enticing.

Selections

• #12 Somnambulist (8-1)
• #10 Lighten (5-2)
• #9 Gracie’s Delight (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #12 Somnambulist

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $4,212 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

Winning a share of Wednesday’s $4,212 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park won’t be easy.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 9, an ultra-competitive maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies who brought a final bid of $50,000 or less at their most recent auction. An overflow field of 14 (including two also-eligibles) has entered the one-mile Tapeta contest, and four of the entrants are first-time starters.

Wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 4 with 2,6,11 with 1,2,6,10,11 with 1,2,6,10,11,12 ($48)
• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 2,6,11 with 4 with 1,2,6,10,11 with 1,2,6,10,11,12 ($48)
  Total: $96

Our top choice is #7 Sway House (7-2). He’s shown some ability at Churchill Downs, most notably finishing second in a six-furlong maiden special weight for horses who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction.

Stretching out over one mile at Turfway Park should help Sway House challenge for victory. Since 2023, trainer Dale Romans has gone 3-for-4 (75%) saddling experienced juveniles in route races at Turfway. That streak of success includes a win last Friday with Spirit of a Walkon, who wired a one-mile $50,000 maiden claimer at Turfway Park as the 3-1 second choice in a 12-horse field.

Spirit of a Walkon was ridden to victory by Vincent Cheminaud, who is assigned the mount on Sway House. Throw in the fact Sway House is the fastest horse entered in Race 9 from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and he’s worth keying on top in the Super High 5.

Underneath, we’ll emphasize #4 Figurine (9-2), a first-time starter trained by Brad Cox. Cox wins at a powerful 30% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther, and since 2020, he’s gone 4-for-11 (36%) debuting juveniles in route races at Turfway Park. We’ll count on Figurine to finish in the top three.

Others we’ll use underneath include #2 Cady Hill (10-1), a first-time starter for trainer Brendan Walsh; #6 About and Around (6-1), who is adding blinkers off a 10th-place debut in a turf maiden special weight at Keeneland; and #11 Florentine Lady (10-1), a troubled ninth on debut in a turf maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs.

Good luck!