Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $41,790 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Dec. 17 at Turfway Park, including horses to bet in the $41,790 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 4x Points at Tampa Bay Downs: Receive 4x rewards points on all wagers at Tampa Bay Downs each Wednesday in December.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Tampa Bay Downs Challenge
• $100 Tampa Bay Downs Feeder to 12/20 Gun Runner KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Park Feeder to 12/27 Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 4: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Wesley Ward has compiled a stellar 4-for-8 (50%) record saddling experienced juveniles at Turfway Park.

This bodes well for #9 Arbiter (8-5). The son of Charlatan led all the way to win his debut in a maiden special weight over the Churchill Downs turf. He isn’t facing any other confirmed frontrunners at Turfway and is a threat to lead all the way under red-hot jockey Walter Rodriguez, a 36% winner this meet.

Let’s bet Arbiter to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #9 Arbiter (8-5)
• #4 Reb Five (9-5)
• #1 Uncle Bucky (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Arbiter
• $10 Double: 9 with 6
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#6 Mandy’s Man Can (8-1) showed some ability in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last month. Sprinting six furlongs over the main track, he set the pace before staying on to finish second with a respectable 81 Brisnet Speed rating.

Mandy’s Man Can was claimed out of that effort by Paulo Lobo, who has compiled a sharp 8-2-2-3 (25%) record at Turfway Park this meet. We’re willing to bet Mandy’s Man Can will move forward while switching to Tapeta and challenge for victory at enticing odds.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Mandy’s Man Can (8-1)
• #5 Hellacious (5-2)
• #7 Arthur Jr (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Mandy’s Man Can

Turfway Park: Race 7: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

None of the two-year-old fillies in this field bring particularly compelling form to the table, so let’s try betting longshot #8 Love Knicks Hart (20-1) at a big price.

Love Knicks Hart hasn’t factored in two starts: a maiden special weight racing one mile on turf at Keeneland and a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs on dirt at Churchill Downs. Perhaps switching to Tapeta, adding blinkers, and plunging in class can help Love Knicks Hart challenge for victory. It’s worth noting trainer Wayne Catalano wins at a lofty 43% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

A modest win bet is our strategy.

Selections

• #8 Love Knicks Hart (20-1)
• #11 Joropo (8-5)
• #4 Dancing Legacy (12-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #8 Love Knicks Hart

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 10: $41,790 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

A huge $41,790 Super High 5 carryover is available to chase on Wednesday night at Turfway Park.

The non-jackpot prize pool is up for grabs in Race 10, a $15,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies racing on mile on Tapeta. An overflow field of 14 has entered, including two also-eligibles.

Here are five horses we recommend including on your Super High 5 tickets:

#4 Zafyre (4-1): After failing to factor in a pair of $30,000 maiden claimers on the Kentucky circuit, Zafyre fared better in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis, rallying late to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths. Horses exiting races at Horseshoe Indianapolis often perform well at Turfway Park, and dropping down to the $15,000 level can help Zafyre challenge for hot trainer Jeremiah O’Dwyer, a 40% winner at Turfway this meet.

#9 Spastic Bid (8-1): In her most recent start against fellow fillies, Spastic Bid ran fourth by 5 1/4 lengths in a $20,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf. There’s a chance she’ll improve while trying Tapeta and dropping in class, and a five-pound weight allowance courtesy of apprentice jockey Xarel Forde adds to the appeal.

#10 Vadora (10-1): Vadora has only run once, finishing seventh in a $40,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf. Adding blinkers and dropping in class for her second start might be all she needs to move forward and factor for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Danny Sheehy and Thomas Molloy.

#11 Fire (5-1): Two starts in turf maiden special weights at Keeneland and Churchill Downs haven’t been productive for Fire; she’s finished ninth and 12th. But plunging in class at Turfway Park may unlock a competitive performance. Switching to Tapeta should help too, since Fire is a half-sister to Tapeta stars Made in America (a stakes winner at Turfway Park) and Palazzi (a Grade 2 winner at Woodbine). Fire is our top choice to win Race 10.

#12 Honorisia (9-2): Honorisia hasn’t shown much in two starts against $50,000 maiden claiming competition at Churchill Downs, finishing seventh and eighth in a pair of dirt sprints. However, she’s bred to relish stretching out over one mile, and trainer Eddie Kenneally wins at a 21% rate with horses stretching out to a route distance off back-to-back sprints. Dropping in class cements Honorisia as a logical contender.

Good luck!