Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Saratoga’s $132,233 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, July 30 at Colonial Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Assiniboia Downs, along with analysis of Saratoga’s $132,233 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs every racing day in July.
• 8x Points at Colonial Downs: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Colonial Downs each Wednesday in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Saratoga Challenge
• $500 Saratoga MMBC Qualifier
• $120 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/9 Saratoga/Arlington Million MMBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:28 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, hot trainer Brittany Russell has gone 2-for-7 (29%) debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Colonial Downs. This bodes well for Russell’s unraced two-year-old #12 Karate Island (5-1).

A son of Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Karakontie (who sires 18% winners from first-time turf starters), Karate Island has put together a lengthy work tab highlighted by half a mile in :48 2/5. Under jockey Jevian Toledo (a 25% winner teaming up with Russell over the last two months), Karate Island is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #12 Karate Island (5-1)
• #3 Principote (4-1)
• #7 Pendar (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #12 Karate Island

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#2 King Arturo (6-1) looks like a threat to win on debut for trainer Michelle Elliott. He’s a son of Florida Derby (G1) winner Take Charge Indy (who sires 15% winners from first-time starters), and he clocked a bullet half-mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :46 4/5 last month.

Throw in the fact that King Arturo will be guided by apprentice jockey Jose Gutierrez (who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance), and the unraced colt warrants a win bet.

Selections

• #2 King Arturo (6-1)
• #10 J’s Uno (5-1)
• #3 Thousands of Hopes (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 King Arturo

Assiniboia Downs: Race 4: Debutante S. (five furlongs on dirt, 9:50 p.m. ET)

#2 Wecanonlyimagine (6-5) was tons the best when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Assiniboia Downs two weeks ago. She led by daylight at every call to dominate by 4 3/4 lengths, earning a 73 Brisnet Speed rating five points higher than the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions.

Let’s count on Wecanonlyimagine to win right back, keying her over promising first-time starters #5 High Miler (3-1) and #1 Ms Latte (6-1) in exacta tickets. 

Selections

• #2 Wecanonlyimagine (6-5)
• #5 High Miler (3-1)
• #1 Ms Latte (6-1)

Wagers

• $18 Exacta: 2 with 5
• $12 Exacta: 2 with 1
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Saratoga: Race 4: $132,233 Pick 6 carryover (4:06 p.m. ET)

This week’s racing action at Saratoga kicks off on Wednesday with a massive $132,233 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Look no further than #6 Corruption (7-5) in Race 4, a $100,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-olds and older negotiating 1 3/8 miles over the inner turf course.

Corruption fits well at this class level. He’s won each of his last four non-stakes starts, including a 1 1/2-mile $35,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park and a 1 1/8-mile $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. In both of those races, he showed good early speed, even leading gate to wire at Churchill.

Corruption has also performed admirably in graded stakes. In Gulfstream’s 1 1/2-mile Pan American (G3), he carved out the pace before staying on to finish second by a neck against multiple Grade 1 winner Far Bridge. And in the 1 1/8-mile Manhattan (G1) at Saratoga, Corruption finished fourth against the accomplished grass runners Deterministic, Integration, and Far Bridge.

Dropping in class and stretching out over 1 3/8 miles should be all Corruption needs to visit the winner’s circle under hot jockey Jose Ortiz, a 24% winner at Saratoga this meet and a 27% winner teaming up with Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse over the last two months. Add in the fact Corruption’s early speed figures to ensure a favorable trip, and he’s a compelling Pick 6 single.

Later on, the feature event in the Pick 6—Race 8—looks harder to handicap. It’s the Johnstone S. for New York-bred fillies and mares dashing seven furlongs on dirt. There are plenty of viable win threats among the nine entrants.

#8 Sterling Silver (5-2) is a slim favorite, but she’s been running one mile and farther as of late, and her last few sprint tries weren’t overly remarkable.

#9 Bernietakescharge (10-1) defeated Sterling Silver by a neck in the 1 1/8-mile Critical Eye S. at Saratoga last month, but again, she’s been running long lately and isn’t guaranteed to thrive on the cutback to seven furlongs.

#5 My Mane Squeeze (3-1) is our narrow top choice while dropping in class out of 10 straight graded stakes. She won two of them, including the seven-furlong Dogwood (G3), and earlier this year she placed third in the seven-furlong Madison (G1). She’s a definite sprint specialist.

However, #2 Dolomite (5-1) boasts strong sprinting form as well. She’s won three straight dashes at Aqueduct, including non-state-restricted $50,000 and $75,000 allowance optional claimers. She’s worth including in the Pick 6.

Good luck!