Why I'm betting Spanish Mission in the Jockey Club Derby

What do Trade Storm, Sheikhzayedroad, I’m a Dreamer, Desert Encounter and Caspar Netscher all have in common?

They were all trained abroad by David Simcock, and all traveled to North America to win major graded stakes races.

Simcock doesn’t send runners across the Atlantic very often, but since 2011 he’s compiled a 5-for-19 record in North America, with another five runners cracking the trifecta. That’s why I’m excited to see Simcock send #9 Spanish Mission to contest the inaugural running of the $1 million Jockey Club Derby at Belmont Park, the third and final leg of the New York Racing Association's “Turf Trinity” series.

The first two legs of the series were marked by inconsistent performances and major upsets. #3 Henley’s Joy kicked things with a 20-1 upset in the Belmont Derby (G1), where he showed more tactical speed than usual and saved ground around the turns. It was a perfect trip, but Henley’s Joy didn’t get so lucky in the Saratoga Derby, where he dropped far behind a slow pace and rallied mildly (through fast finishing fractions) to finish fifth. #1 A Thread of Blue was the beneficiary instead and waltzed along on an uncontested lead to post a 13-1 upset.

Of the pair I prefer Henley’s Joy, a stoutly bred son of top turf stallion Kitten’s Joy. He should enjoy the 1 1/2-mile distance of the Jockey Club Derby more than A Thread of Blue, but then again, #8 Digital Age beat them both in the American Turf Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs before he received less-than-ideal trips when fourth in the Belmont Derby and second in the Saratoga Derby. Might he rate an even stronger chance than Henley's Joy and A Thread of Blue?

Rather than attempt to split these evenly matched and inconsistent American turf sophomores, I’ll play Spanish Mission to beat them all. In addition to Simcock’s strong record in North America, Spanish Mission brings many other virtues to the Jockey Club Derby. He’s proven himself running long against good company in Europe, where he has won the 1 5/8-mile Bahrain Trophy (G3) at Newmarket over good-to-firm ground and come up a neck short over softer going in the 1 1/2-mile Qatar Gordon Stakes (G3) at Goodwood.

Spanish Mission should encounter his preferred course conditions at Belmont Park, and his draw of post 9 should afford him the opportunity to stay out of traffic and put his proven stamina to good use. In an otherwise head-scratching field, Spanish Mission’s stout form from Europe is appealing in this "Win and You're In" qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1).

Let’s key Spanish Mission in the first two slots of the trifecta, while otherwise emphasizing Henley’s Joy and Digital Age, two of the most pace-compromised late runners in the Saratoga Derby.

$2 trifecta: 9 with 3,8 with 1,3,6,8 ($12) $2 trifecta: 3,8 with 9 with 1,3,6,8 ($12) $1.50 trifecta: 9 with 1,6 with 3,8 ($6)

Good luck!