Keeneland expert picks: Pick 5 ticket for Sunday, April 14, 2024

April 14th, 2024

Let’s close out the second week of Keeneland's Spring Meet with a Late Pick 5 ticket for Sunday’s nine-race card.

$1 Pick 5 ticket, Races 5-9 (50-cent minimum)

1, 5, 11 with 7, 8 with 12 with 3, 4 with 4, 7, 10 ($36)

Race 5: 1 1/2 miles (turf), allowance, 4yo and up

#1 Six Minus (7-2) — Has a win and a third from three tries at 1 1/2 miles. Finished a five-length eighth in the 1 3/8-mile Mac Diarmida (G2) last out and drops in class. Todd Pletcher is a 22% winner at the allowance level, and Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the mount. Posted 90 BRIS Speed figure three back when a neck third in the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens.

#11 Verbal (15-1) — Flintshire gelding rallied late to finish sixth by 2 1/4 lengths in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds. Brendan Walsh is a 23% winner second off the layoff and an 18% winner at the allowance level. Tyler Gaffalione (24-6-3-3 the last week) will pick up the mount.

#5 Headline News (9-5) — Was sixth by 2 1/4 lengths last out in Mac Diarmida and will keep rider Jose Ortiz, a 20% winner on turf and a 22% winner this meet. Drops in class for Jimmy Toner, a 14% winner at the allowance level. Curlin gelding’s 89 BRIS figure from the Mac Diarmida is the highest last race Speed figure among the field.

#7 Utah Beach (8-1) — English Channel gelding won last out at today’s distance in an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream and moves up in class. Loses rider Jose Ortiz to the morning line favorite Headline News. Joel Rosario (19% on turf) picks up the mount, and Nacho Correas is a 17% winner with horses that won their last race. Last out Speed figure is a bit light (82) compared to other runners but may improve off the layoff.

Race 6: 1 1/16 miles, claimer, 3yos

Will stand against morning line favorite #3 Blown Cover (9-5), who was far back in last when racing at today’s distance at Oaklawn last out. Brad Cox runner will take money, and Cox is a 30% winner at the claiming level, but I see other runners who can beat the early pacesetter.

#8 J T’s Imagination (3-1) — Finished second in last two racing in a one-mile claimer and a one-mile-and-70-yard optional claimer over a sloppy Fair Grounds track. Can improve with added distance. Recorded 89 and 85 BRIS figures in last two. Trainer Joe Sharp is an 18% winner at the claiming level, and Tyler Gaffalione (20% winner this meet) picks up the mount.

#7 Dr Bayter (8-1) — Girvin gelding makes fourth start since transferring to Jose D’Angelo’s barn and won last out in a seven-furlong claimer at Tampa Bay Downs. Will stretch out to a route for the first time and moves back up in class. Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard is a huge plus (25% with routes and a 23% winner this meet). 

#1 Mr. Faversham (9-2) —  Closer finished third racing a mile in an allowance at Turfway last out and posted an 81 BRIS figure. Makes third start since moving to the barn of Stephen Lyster, a 27% winner going from all-weather to dirt. The rail post is winning at an 18% clip, and Luan Machado retains the mount.

Race 7: 1 1/8 miles (turf), allowance, fillies and mares, 4yo and up

#12 Notinamillionyears (3-1) — Morning line favorite was beaten a head last out in a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Aqueduct in November and recorded an 87 BRIS figure. Chad Brown is a 26% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days, and Irad Ortiz Jr. (22% on turf) will stay in the saddle. Will single in third leg of the Pick 5.

If standing against the favorite…

#7 Zipadoo (8-1) — Finished third, three-quarters of a length behind Notinamillionyears, three back in the allowance at Aqueduct. Then cut back to 1 1/16 miles in last two and was eighth and seventh. Graham Motion is a 17% winner with shippers, and John Velazquez (17% winner this meet) retains the mount.

#1 Boss Lady Bailey (15-1) — Late runner clocked an 89 BRIS figure last out when fourth to a next-out winner in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream. Makes third turf start for John Ortiz and is eligible to improve third start off the layoff. Ortiz is also a 20% winner at the allowance level. Reylu Gutierrez will pick up the mount.

#4 High Stick (9-2) — Broke maiden in fifth career start going gate to wire in a 1 1/4-mile maiden special weight at Belmont. Comes off a more than nine-month layoff for Shug McGaughey, a 15% winner off lengthy layoffs and an 18% winner with shippers. Jose Ortiz (20% on turf and 29% paired with McGaughey the last two months) will inherit the mount.

Race 8: 7 furlongs, allowance, 4yo and up

#3 Mac Daddy Too (2-1) — Won two back in a six-furlong claimer and recorded an 89 BRIS figure, then was beaten a neck last out at the same distance in an allowance. Luis Saez regains the mount. Trainer Norm Casse is a 21% winner with sprints and a 19% winner with shippers. Maclean’s Music gelding is 1-for-1 at the distance.

#4 Solidify (6-1) — Tapizar eight-year-old won two back in a six-furlong allowance at Turfway and recorded an 87 BRIS figure. Got off to a slow start last out and finished far back in last and will drop down in class here. Juan Cano is a 16% winner going from all-weather to dirt, and Axel Concepcion (14% in sprints) will retain the mount. Has a win in lone start at Keeneland back in October, when gelding won a six-furlong allowance and posted a 91 BRIS figure.

#2 Lunar Module (10-1) — Four-year-old makes first start off the claim for Jose Camejo and comes off a more than two-month layoff. Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the mount (18% in sprints), and the colt has a couple of sharp workouts. Last-out Speed figure was an 81 in a six-furlong claimer at Fair Grounds.

Race 9: 1 1/2 miles (turf), allowance, 4yo and up

#4 High Tide (9-2) — Malibu Moon gelding won by 4 1/2 lengths last out in a 1 1/16-mile allowance over yielding turf. Clocked a 91 BRIS figure and a 96 Late Pace rating. Florent Geroux (29% winner this meet) picks up the mount. Rob Atras is a 25% winner with horses that won their last race and a 22% winner with shippers.

#10 King Curlin (15-1) — Curlin five-year-old stretched out to 1 1/2 miles and got up to win by half a length in an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream in January while recording a career-best 98 BRIS figure. Returns off a more than three-month layoff for Brittany Vanden Berg, a 27% winner with horses that won their last race. Regular rider Chris Emigh retains the mount.

#7 Foreign Relations (7-2) — Karakontie gelding was beaten a nose last out after leading all the way into the stretch in a 1 1/2-mile allowance at Keeneland in October; recorded 92 BRIS figure. Keeps rider Tyler Gaffalione (20% winner this meet), but comes off a more than six-month layoff for Connor Murphy, who’s just an 11% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days. Blinkers come off. Crossed the finish line first in only other start at Keeneland, also racing at today’s distance, but was placed 10th via DQ for interference.

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