2026 Kentucky Derby Brisnet Speed Rating Report

Sovereignty became only the third horse in 16 years to win the Kentucky Derby without earning a triple-digit Brisnet Speed Rating beforehand, registering a top number of 99, winning the Fountain of Youth (G2) two starts prior to the first Saturday in May last year. He received a 94 Speed rating, finishing second in the final prep, the Florida Derby (G1).

Speed ratings remain an important tool toward identifying a Kentucky Derby winner, but Sovereignty serves as a reminder that most are poised to move forward with a career-best in the Kentucky Derby. There are exceptions – eventual Triple Crown winner Justify proved too talented for rivals in 2018, failing to improve on a whopping 114 Speed rating from the Santa Anita Derby (G1) – but the Kentucky Derby often comes up more evenly matched, requiring the winner to deliver a career-best performance. 

The 2026 Kentucky Derby looks very competitive, with Renegade, Further Ado, and Commandment eligible to compete for favoritism and possibly a few runners right behind them in wagering, and there’s always a potential for a wildcard in Kentucky Derby Win-Place-Show pools that exceeded $122 million last year.

The top half of the projected 20-horse field is within five points of each other, registering career-high Speed ratings in the 100-105 range, and that doesn’t include expected morning line favorite Renegade, who posted back-to-back 97 Speed figures winning the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Sam F. Davis S. this year.

It promises to be a fun and challenging Kentucky Derby.

Derby winners

Let’s review Brisnet Speed ratings earned by the last five Kentucky Derby winners, as well as their final prep. All improved by at least four points.

Kentucky Derby field

Focusing on the final two prep races, the Kentucky Derby field is ranked by last-out Brisnet Speed number (U.S.-based horses; Speed ratings not available for international races). Horses listed with an asterisk are outside the projected 20-horse field at publication, needing at least one defection.

Takeaways

Further Ado will take some beating if he runs back to his final prep, an 11-length victory in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland that netted a field-best 105 Brisnet Speed rating. He improved 13 points from his seasonal comeback, a runner-up in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and that makes Further Ado a candidate for regression. The chestnut must also carry his form outside of Keeneland, where he broke his maiden by 20 lengths and easily registered his top two Speed figures. Further Ado is only 1-for-4 at other tracks, but he did capture his lone appearance at Churchill Downs, taking the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall. And Further Ado appears to be training forwardly at Churchill for the Kentucky Derby.

Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner So Happy (103) and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Emerging Market (102) come next in last-out Speed ratings. They did not appear to face the deepest competition in their final prep, and inexperience looms as a possible factor for Emerging Market, who remains promising but is trying to become the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby in the third start in more than 150 years. The stretch out to 1 1/4 miles represents a challenge for So Happy, who appears geared for shorter distances based on bloodlines, but his tactical ability and impressive last-out showing merit respect. Louisiana Derby runner-up Pavlovian will be tested for class, but he brings improving form and rates as a possible pace player if he breaks well in the Kentucky Derby.

Commandment won the deepest prep races and rates as a serious Kentucky Derby win contender based on Speed ratings. A winner of four consecutive races, including a maiden tally at Churchill Downs last fall, Commandment’s pattern bears some similarity to Sovereignty; both were juvenile winners at Churchill and posted a career best Speed number in the penultimate prep (Fountain of Youth) before running well in the Florida Derby.

Florida Derby runner-up and Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma and Florida Derby third Chief Wallabee have the numbers to challenge for it all after earning triple-digit Speed ratings in the final prep. Potente will need to step up in his fourth career outing, but he’s trained by six-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert and owns a triple-digit Speed rating. Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt and Louisiana Derby third Golden Tempo also merit consideration for at least vertical exotics (exacta, trifecta, superfecta, etc.) after fast performances in the final prep.

As well as pairing up Speed ratings, Renegade registered outstanding 109 and 111 Brisnet Late Pace ratings, recording convincing wins in his two starts this year. A non-threatening second in the Remsen (G2) last December, the bay colt has improved as a three-year-old for two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher, and Renegade projects to keep showing more on the first Saturday in May.

Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Fulleffort has never raced over dirt, Golden Tempo will need a little more after offering belated rallies in the last two preps, and Silent Tactic lacks the numbers of his main rivals, but all have run fast enough to merit consideration for at least minor awards.

Good luck!