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Winning underlay or losing overlay? The Players Pool conundrum
You are offered two games of chance with fixed odds. In the first game, you flip a coin and get 4-to-5 odds on your choice (heads or tails). In the second game, you roll a standard six-sided die and get 6-to-1 odds on your choice (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 ...
Racing
Young Guns, Glamour Groups, Fire
Even though Pocono Downs gets the week’s top headlines with Saturday, June 29’s finals at the Pennsylvania oval next week, including another appearance by Captaintreacherous, the weekend agenda launches herds of freshmen onto the 2013 scene. Frosh- ...
Racing
Contest Races for Thursday and Friday
CLICK HERE FOR CONTEST DETAILS CONTEST RACES FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 27 1) Belmont 7 – OCL, 1M, Dirt – 4:13 2) Churchill 8 – AOC, 1 1/16M, Dirt – 4:29 3) Belmont 8 – OCL, 6F, Dirt – 4:45 4) Churchill 9 – CLM, 1M, Dirt – 4:59 5) Belmont 9 – CL ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
Captaintreacherous did it again this weekend, winning on Pocono’s five-eighths track in one of three elims for next week’s Max Hempt stakes. The champion glamour boy pacer paid $2.40 but our best pick was in the first “Hempt” elim, where we nailed Em ...
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Rocking Around the Clock on Saturday at TwinSpires.com
Near-around the clock action is nothing new on TwinSpires.com, but the class of the races offered on Saturday-- with group and graded stakes action beginning with Royal Ascot in the morning and concluding with Churchill Downs "after dark" --is pretty ...
Racing
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Pocono’s Powerhouse Features
Pocono Downs shines with features on Sun Stakes Saturday, June 22,with eliminations for finals at the Pennsylvania oval next week, including a big event on the Hambletonian Trail which you can read about on the excluscive blog. Soph-colt pacers ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 06/19 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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TwinSpires player turns $20 to show on Orb into $6,705.67 pay day
For those who thought (as I did) that Orb was the most likely winner of the Belmont Stakes, nearly even money (19-to-20, paying $3.90) to show on the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands winner in the third jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
Aside from the accolades, we told you that at 1-1 or up Captaintreacherous would be an overlay. He paid a remarkable $4.80 to win. The buzz horses were all zapped by the stretch to the point where the longest shot on the board—Twilight Bonfire—who go ...
Racing
Pace Handicapping: A Practical Demonstration
(Click on image to enlarge) (Click on image to enlarge) The first thing to take note of regarding this race is that the average early speed ration, or ESR, is on the moderate side for a sprint rac ...
Racing
A Bettor’s Grand Guide To The North America Cup
What follows is an exclusive bettor’s look at the horses in the North America Cup. You can read their stats, drivers and trainers on the program pages and you can read the human-interest stories at a lot of websites. This text is only about the horse ...
Racing
Marvelous Menagerie At Mohawk And More
It’s one of the biggest programs of the season, headlined by the Pepsi North America Cup on Saturday, June 15. There is so much material to accompany analysis of the races on the Mohawk Raceway program that night that we have split the difference wit ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 06/12 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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Triple Crown winners and losers
While not financially lucrative (-18.6% ROI), the Triple Crown series provided satisfying story lines, and perhaps more importantly as a fan of racing beyond the Triple Crown, story lines that are likely to continue on the road to the Breeders' Cup T ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
It was a slow weekend for us on the betting platform because we were mostly done in by public choices. The one we wanted, the beast of pacing, Captaintreacherous, put in a dynamic performance to win a North America Cup elim. He was challenged in the ...
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Belmont Stakes pedigree: looking for that magic cross
When it comes to pedigree handicapping, I'm not a big fan of saying a certain aspect of a horse's lineage means s/he can't do something on the track. Rather, pedigree helps gives clues as to what a horse might most like to do: run short, long, or som ...
Racing
Eliminations Galore With North America Cup Headlining
Glamour-boy pacers are in the limelight this weekend as the North America Cup eliminations are featured at Mohawk Raceway and this year’s first $1-million affair takes shape (the final is next week). The filly set takes aim at the Fan Hanover final f ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 06/05 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
Host Derek Simon handicaps LIVE races from Belmont Park and Beulah Park and also offers an in-depth analysis of the Belmont Stakes. In the U. of Bet segment, Derek and Dave Schwartz of thehorsehandicappingauthority.com discuss how ...
Racing
Mid-week action at Meadows
Check out the Wednesday, June 5 Currier & Ives divisions at the Meadows by going to : https://www.twinspires.com/sites/twinspires.com/files/blogger_importer/06/currier-ives-hosts-fillies-in-lucrative.html We continue to exclusively follow all the ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
It was a stakes-filled weekend and if you like the headline events get used to it because we are just starting with the big-purse flow. Let’s start this review with our good-news wins. At the Meadows we nailed the $178 exacta in the Pennsylvania ...
Racing
Understanding Form Cycles
(Click on image to enlarge) Shockingly (not really), just as improving Beyer speed figures increase the likelihood of a regression, so too do ascending Form Ratings — especially if the most recent Rating exceeds 75 percent. Likewis ...
Racing
Powerful Pacing Parade
Pacers adorn this weekend’s highlights, with older and younger fields in combat. For the mare pacers there are two generously pursed Golden Girl divisions at the Meadowlands and there are two New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) finals for sophomore pacers ...
Racing
Hit it or win it? The ULW dilemma
Bettors walk a fine line between trying to "hit" their wagers and maximizing profit from them. As a multi-race player, I constantly struggle with ULWs--underlaid likely winners--and how to use them. ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/29 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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Turning $20 to show into $10,000
We're still 11 days out, but the Belmont Stakes (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of possible entrants) is shaping up to be a fantastic race as part of an always-fascinating card at Belmont Park. Many of us (including the TwinSpir ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
Hello from my neighborhood track, Penn National Racecourse (see photo by Sharon Hindermyer). Here I was by the paddock, sheltered from the rain pelting the track, watching my thoroughbred-trainer friend Frank Cifarelli walk his steed before sending i ...
Racing
Preakness 2013: Redemption for ‘Figure Handicapping’
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Oxbow's Preakness pace wasn't soft
Before Preakness, Ox bow had five previous races where at least one of those ratings (the E1 or E2) was 95+, and he lost all five of those races . In the Preakness , however, Oxbow po pped a 96-105 en route to a victory in wh ...
Racing
Solid Stakes Situations
Pacing and trotting action ensues into deep spring with action from many divisions in the U.S. and business-torn Ontario. New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) and Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) for soph pacers and trotters are flowing with glamour-boys a ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/22 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
A lot of bettors were excited about Mister Herbie in the “Cutler” final at the Meadowlands on May 18, sending him off around 6-5. We liked him, though not at that price, and if you were so inclined to pass due to that then you saved a few bucks since ...
Racing
The Baltimore Bounce
(Click on image to enlarge) It appears that my hypothesis may be correct (the sample is far too small to be definitive). Horses that improved their Brisnet speed figure by more than five points in the Kentucky Derby (compared to their ...
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Horse by horse Preakness analysis with fair odds line
I’m not the type that’s big into having to pick one horse as the winner of each race. I understand why it’s done for major events, but even though I’m calling Itsmyluckyday my pick to win the Preakness Stakes (as he was in the Derby) it’s not like I ...
Racing
Foes Out In Full Force
Some big names from the past and present are involved in this weekend’s harness features around North America. Older pacers and trotters of the first degree meet at the Meadowlands and New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) and Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PAS ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/15 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
TwinSpires ' Derek Simon discusses all the latest Preakness news with Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com . Among the topics are: Orb’s scintillating recent workout, Departing’s status as the likely second choice in Maryland and fair-value exacta combinatio ...
Racing
Enter the Preakness exacta matrix
Anyone can make a morning line for projected win odds, but making one for exacta will pays takes a little more finesse, though I did take some liberties to make it easier while still providing guidance as to where the money will go in the exacta pool ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
This past weekend you had to go out of your way to find a winner from this department, as the weekend’s offerings, in general, missed their marks, mostly to favorites. Keeping good notes on our Thursday blogs and following through is what worked this ...
Racing
Kentucky Derby Recap & Triple Crown Preview
(Click on image to enlarge) Though the son of Into Mischief is clearly a closer (say that five times fast), notice that he was within three lengths of the leader at the first call in four of his five races prior to the Derby. However, ...
Racing
Final Derby thoughts and what Orb's win means for racing
As the Kentucky Derby aftermath gives way to Preakness chatter, the story lines for the second jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown are becoming fairly well established with Orb's quest to become the first Triple Crown winner since Af ...
Racing
Northern Exposure; Jersey Giants
The big Saturday features this week take us to Canada, where Woodbine hosts the Princess Final and the Diplomat Final, starring sophomores. The co-starring events are at the Meadowlands. Of course, there are four John Simpson Stakes on Friday, May 10 ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/08 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
TwinSpires' Derek Simon and Brisnet's Ed DeRosa recap the 2013 Kentucky Derby and look forward to the Preakness Stakes. In the U. of Bet segment, Dave Schwartz and Derek further discuss the Derby as it relates to value betting. Lastly, in the Hand ...
Racing
What could stop Orb in the Preakness
When the Preakness Stakes unfolds on May 18 at Pimlico Race Course, two things regarding the running of the race are likely to be different than the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands: 1) the surface, 2) the pace. And it probably won't ...
Racing
Can Orb do it?
Catching my breath following a whirlwind 78 hours in Louisville and already looking forward both to the Preakness Stakes in less than two weeks and Kentucky Derby 140 in less than a year. One of the things I got right in my pre-race analysis was ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
It was the beginning of the Hambletonian Trail and we repeated with a winner in the soph-colt trot classic Dexter Cup at Freehold. Celebrity Maserati defeated the big favorite, paying $6.00. All race reviews and reports will be posted at the Hamble ...
Racing
And they're off in the Kentucky Derby
My Kentucky Derby analysis in the form of Mark Johson's race call of the most exciting two minutes in sports. "They're in the gate! "And they're off in Derby one-thirty-nine. "Oxbow from the inside immediately goes to the lead ...
Racing
Derby Day
v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} .shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} It’s finally here — Derby Day! And I, like so many of you reading this I’m sure, have been immersed in h ...
Racing
The Breeders' Cup Kentucky Oaks
This year's Kentucky Oaks has the feel of a Breeders' Cup race to me in that good horses will be good prices, and while it'd be a surprise if Rose To Gold, Princess of Sylmar, or Pure Fun won in that neither is one of the more likely winners, it'd ha ...
Racing
Video previews of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands
Triple Crown Insider's preview of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands. ...
Racing
‘Trail’ Mix Amid Meadowlands Marquee
With all horseracing eyes on The Kentucky Derby, the Grand Circuit’s focused stakes can only take co-starring roles. Still, this is our official start of the big season, including the launch of our exclusive information center, the Hambletonian Tra ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 05/01 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
Special Kentucky Derby edition! Scheduled guests include Brian Zipse, managing editor of Horse Racing Nation , Kerry Thomas of the Thomas Herding Technique and, of course, Ed DeRosa ( Brisnet.com ) and Dave Schwartz ( thehorsehandicappingauthority ...
Racing
Kentucky Oaks morning line
Initial indignation gave way to curiosity as I tried to figure out who gets ignored if Dreaming of Julia is as low as 2-to-1. Based on her Gulfstream Park Oaks performance, it looked as if Dreaming Of Julia could be odds on, but there's just bee ...
Racing
Bullet Train Pulls Into Derby Station
One thing about the new Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands points system : the buzz it generated certainly outweighed its practical use. With a projected field of 19-20 entrants, there was no need for a mechani sm to determine prefere ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
The Matchmaker and the George Morton Levy finals were the focus of April’s end at Yonkers. The “Levy” offered two events before the final but only the favorites knew their ways to the winners’ circle. The best we did was have EZ Noah for third ...
Racing
Derby drive time
One of my favorite big-event traditions is making a music play list for traveling, and my favorite play list to make is the Derby because it's me, the early morning dew, rolling pastures, and 75 minutes of music on Interstate 64 to kick off my week. ...
Racing
Derby prom
Dana Byerly's " Derby Dating " columns are on hiatus, which is a shame because her approach was a fun way of parsing the contenders. With her blessing, I decided to take a run at the approach by aligning my picks with who I would want to take to prom ...
Racing
Last ‘Levy’ Stand; Courageous Lady Calls Seven
The George Morton Levy Series Final for stalwart older pacers becomes the focus this Saturday, April 27, with the older mares co-starring in the final of the Blue Chip Matchmaker, both at the events’ home track, Yonkers Raceway. After five weeks ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 04/24 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
TwinSpires' Derek Simon and Brisnet's Ed DeRosa discuss all the Derby doings, including top contenders Verrazano , Revolutionary, Itsmyluckyday and Orb . In the U. of Bet segment, the planned discussion of value betting goes out ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
Two seconds in the Matchmaker series (Handsoffmycookie [5-1] and Keepers Destiny [5-2]) were as close as we came to getting upset winners in the mares’ series, which goes to a final next week at Yonkers, along with the George Morton Levy final for th ...
Racing
A Kentucky Derby Best Bet
(Click on image to enlarge) Rules 1) Horse must have earned higher LSRs in each of its last two races. 2) All horse’s last three races must’ve been contested over a route o ...
Racing
Will wilcard weekend yield clues
When Churchill Downs unveiled its new points system to determine who could start in the Kentucky Derby (in the event that more than 20 enter the race), the Coolmore Lexington, Derby Trial, and Illinois Derby were written off as prep races because of ...
Racing
Penultimate ‘Levy’ Splits; Winners’ Watch Ensues
The George Morton Levy Series goes its final round this Saturday, April 20. This could present the most aggressive groups yet as the series’ characters engage in battles for berths in the final. This fifth week could offer some great prices in the o ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 04/17 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
In the News & Notes segment, TwinSpires ’ Derek Simon and Brisnet 's Ed DeRosa discuss various Kentucky Derby contenders. In the Handicapping segment, Derek discusses "Key Race Ratings" and reveals which Kentucky Derby prep earned a pa ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
Once again this week, success is all about the horses-to-watch (H2W) list, with second-timers making up for some of the many that lost as first-, second- and-third public choices. The Levy divisions at Yonkers on Saturday were won by choices ex ...
Racing
It's not the last chance, it's a big chance
Leg 2 of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com concludes today, and while many have called it "the last chance" for three-year-olds to guarantee themselves a spot in the starting gate, that's really only because of wher ...
Racing
Is Pace Overrated?
(Click on image to enlarge) In fact, this was one of the big reasons I downgraded the chances of I’ll Have Another in last year’s Run for the Roses. In the “Cons” section of the 2012 Kentucky Derby Guide I produced for Brisnet.c ...
Racing
Pounding Pacers Pursue Purses
At Yonkers it is time for the fourth leg of divisions for the George Morton Levy Series this Saturday, April 13, as we try to beat the choices again as the older pacers lessen in numbers heading for the final in two weeks. Meanwhile, pacing mares ret ...
Racing
Bruno With The Works: Rydilluc In Focus
Bruno With The Works is Brisnet.com's latest product offering: A workout service for the top races throughout the country, including Keeneland, Oaks-Derby week at Churchill Downs, Triple Crown events, Saratoga, Del Mar, and the Breeders' Cup World ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 04/10 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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Getting over a hump day hump at Keeneland imperative to multi-race success
As a Pick N player, the most important race today at Keeneland is not the featured seventh--an entry-level allowance worth $60,000--but the blue collar fifth--a starter allowance for $7,500 types worth $21,000. It's not the type of race that ...
Racing
Waiting for a star not to fall
On Monday night/Tuesday morning I dreamed that Team Valor International bought Verrazano because--according to the press release--founder and Chief Executive Officer Barry Irwin thinks the More Than Ready colt is the Messiah. I don't know what ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
The Levy legs at Yonkers on Saturday did not disappoint the public, as only one outsider at 5-1 was victorious. As predicted, the biggest choice, Something For Doc, was the only winner we delivered, ashamed with the win price of $2.10. On Frid ...
Racing
Saturday, April 6, previews, picks, and jokes
If it's possible for American Thoroughbred racing to pack this much action into a weekend then I might as well do my part and pack as much as I can into this blog. If you're wondering why I'm blogging at 1 a.m. EDT after a full day at Keenel ...
Racing
Rosario’s ‘Redemption’ and Picks for the Rainbow Six
(Click on image to enlarge) The fact is Animal Kingdom has gained ground and/or position from the first call to the second call in nine of his 11 lifetime races. In fact, when he won the Kentucky Derby, the son of Leroidesanimaux passed a ...
Racing
Four-five is the Rainbow Six
I don't know many horse players who haven't had April 5 circled on their calendars for some time. Whether it's the Rainbow^6 mandatory payout , opening weekend at Keeneland , Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com weekends a ...
Racing
Chapter-Three ‘Levy’ And More Early Spring Strikes
At Yonkers we take on the third leg of divisions for the George Morton Levy Series, coming off a fabulous streak in the second episodes. Foiled Again is yet to strike and will try again this Saturday, April 6, while the aged-pacing mares return for r ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 04/03 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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TwinSpires Bankroll Bonanza find a better promotion promotion
What we always considered business as usual and the right way to treat customers is apparently a big deal to other account wagering sites. TwinSpires.com has never charged wagering fees, but a competing ADW got a lot of mileage after canceli ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
The Levy legs at Yonkers on Saturday, March 30 testified to our success in this series over the years as our choices bombarded the toteboard. Four of the five divisions were spot on target in our blog’s coverage last Thursday. Best of the bunch ...
Racing
Weekend Handicapping: The ‘Value’ Approach
(Click on image to enlarge) FREE Weekend Handicapping Reports 03/30/13 Fair Grounds Brisnet Past Performances with Simon Speed Rations (selected races) 03/30/13 Gulfstream Park Brisnet Pa ...
Racing
TwinSpires VIP Betting Challenge Official Rules
Click here for Official Results TwinSpires.com VIP Betting Challenge Official Rules Eligibility This contest is open to all TwinSpires.com account holders in good standing with a TSC Elite VIP status of Bronze or above as of March 30, 20 ...
Racing
Louisiana Derby Day - 10% Rolling Pick 4 Bonus
Fair Grounds pulls out all the stops this Saturday for the 100th running of the Louisiana Derby and TwinSpires.com follows suit by offering a 10% Pick 4 Bonus on all three Pick 4 pools on the 13-race card. Whenever you cash a winning Pick 4 ticket on ...
Racing
10% Dubai Double Bonus
Watch and wager on the $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup this Saturday on TwinSpires.com and, while you're at it, pick up an extra 10% on your winnings whenever you cash a winning Daily Double ticket. That's right, whenever you cash a winning Daily Double ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 03/27 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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More March Mayhem
‘Levy’ Links Saturday is set for the contests of “Levy” divisions at Yonkers Raceway. Five divisions were drawn for the 39 entrants in round two. The first division has Clear Vision, the favorite, starting on the extreme outside. This o ...
Racing
Road To The Roses Kentucky Derby game strategy
A streamlined version of the popular Road To The Roses Kentucky Derby game begins this weekend, and with the most points available for winning the Kentucky Derby itself, the simplest strategy would be to select the six horses you feel have the bes ...
Racing
Did new points system increase handle?
Sunland Park generated handle of $3,818,878 for its Sunland Derby day card on Sunday, March 24. The Eastern New Mexico track called it an all-sources record--a fitting coda on the first leg of the inaugural Kentucky Derby Championship Series presente ...
Racing
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
The Levy legs on Saturday, March 23 produced one winner for us and he was the highest paying winner of the six legs. Defeating the mighty Foiled Again, we had Razzle Dazzle, paying $6.10 (pictured left). Of our other choices, Stonehouse Adam finished ...
Racing
The key Gulfstream allowance race
Animal Kingdom used a second-place finish in an entry-level allowance race at Gulfstream Park as a launching pad to superstardom. He went on to win the Spiral Stakes and Kentucky Derby en route to an Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old male. ...
Racing
‘Key’ Derby Preps
(Click on image to enlarge) CAUTION: Keep in mind that we are looking for strong — or weak — races at a specified class le vel . The Key Race Rating is not a measurement of overall talent. Just because a Grade I affair earn ed, ...
Racing
Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 3, now or later?
Identifying potential wagers in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (click for free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs ) involves the following questions: 1. What chance do I give this horse (or wagering interest in the case of the field) ...
Racing
‘Levy’ Stampede Sextet
Six divisions, each worth $50,000, launch the George Morton Levy Series for older pacers at Yonkers Raceway on Saturday, March 23. The aged-pacing mares begin The Blue Chip Matchmaker Series on Friday, March 22 with a quintet of divisions. More ha ...
Racing
TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 03/27 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
There were only two minor features in the sport this week, both at the New Meadowlands and both dominated by public choices. Our picks, Yo Cheyenne Rocky finished third at an astounding 51-1 and Volare De Vie watched all of his foes make it over the ...
Racing
Using Past Odds to Predict Present Results
(Click on image to enlarge) Granted, a 3.4 percent return on investment (ROI) is not likely to get one invited to yacht parties with the rich and famous, but it’s not bad considering that the only criterion was that the h ...
Racing
Springing Into Stakes Season
This weekend the New Meadowlands offers a pair of seasonal series finales while the casts for Yonkers’ late-March battles continue with more on the horizon. Along with the stakes we continue to bring you TwinSpires’ exclusive harness horses to watch ...
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TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 03/13 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
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