Analyzing Saturday carryovers at Ellis, Saratoga, and Colonial

J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to play in Saturday carryovers at Ellis Park, Saratoga, and Colonial Downs, including an upset play for the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1).

Ellis Park, Race 1: $1,212 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

The Ellis Park card kicks off with a $1,212 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Race 1, a $16,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races.

#1 Battleoflexington (5-2) looks like the horse to beat. While he’s misfired in a couple of recent allowances at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs, finishing sixth both times, three starts back he rallied well over a speed-favoring Keeneland main track to finish third in a seven-furlong allowance for non-winners of two races.

That effort yielded a 96 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Saturday’s field. The rest of Battleoflexington’s recent Speed ratings look competitive too, so dropping into a $16,000 claimer should give him every chance to win. We recommend keying Battleoflexington on top in the Super High 5.

Saratoga, Race 7: $154,729 Pick 6 carryover (3:54 p.m. ET)

Plenty of bettors chasing the $154,729 Pick 6 carryover at Saratoga figure to single heavy favorite #3 Thorpedo Anna (1-2) in Race 11, the $500,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). She’s won all three of her starts this season by a minimum of four lengths, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Acorn (G1).

But if Thorpedo Anna sets too slow of a pace in this small field, we can envision 2023 Alcibiades (G1) winner #1 Candied (5-2) springing a surprise. She recently conquered older rivals Honor D Lady and Saddle Up Jessie in a quick renewal of the Lady’s Secret S. at Monmouth Park, and those two beaten runners returned to finish 1-2 in the Delaware H. (G2).

Candied finished strongly in the Lady’s Secret and may have a shot to outkick Thorpedo Anna down the Saratoga homestretch.

Colonial Downs, Race 6: $3,236 Pick 6 carryover (4:14 p.m. ET)

If you plan on pursuing the $3,236 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial, you’ll be happy to know there’s a viable single right off the bat in Race 6, the $125,000 Punch Line S. for Virginia-bred/sired horses sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf.

#1 Determined Kingdom (4-5) is the heavy favorite after kicking off 2024 with a gate-to-wire win in a $55,000 allowance optional claimer dashing 5 1/2 furlongs over the Laurel Park turf. His 4-for-7 record on grass at Colonial includes a 5 1/4-length romp in the 2023 Punch Line. Determined Kingdom’s Brisnet Speed ratings pretty much tower over Saturday’s field, so a repeat Punch Line victory seems likely.

Good luck!