Betting exactas and trifectas in the Southwest Stakes

Essential Quality after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). (Photo by Keeneland Photo)

The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues Saturday, with the $750,000 Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park, which awards 10 qualification points to the winner.

The 1 1/16-mile race is being billed as a two-horse showdown, between #1 Essential Quality (3-2) and #4 Jackie’s Warrior (8-5). The two colts appear to tower over their five rivals and should run first and second at short prices.

But which one will prevail?

Let’s examine the pros and cons offered by the two favorites, then construct a $50 wagering strategy.

Essential Quality

Pros

He is undefeated in three starts, which include victories in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He has shown versatility in terms of running style and brings improving Brisnet Speed ratings to the table. He is undefeated in two starts at 1 1/16 miles and has trained strongly for his 2021 debut.

Cons

Only one Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner since 2011 has returned to win his sophomore debut. The rail draw could lead to a traffic-filled trip, unless Essential Quality flashes more speed than usual or drops back early. There doesn't appear to be much pace in the race to enhance his late rally.

Jackie’s Warrior

Pros

He flashed an abundance of speed in the Saratoga Special (G2), Hopeful (G1), and Champagne (G1) last season. He looms as the only clear frontrunner in the Southwest, and trainer Steve Asmussen (a 28% winner at Oaklawn this meet) has won the Southwest three times.

Like Essential Quality, Jackie’s Warrior has trained sharply for his first run of the season.

Cons

He faltered to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his two-turn debut. His pedigree is geared more toward speed than stamina, so 1 1/16 miles is still a question mark.

Conclusion

Jackie’s Warrior didn’t run a bad race in the Juvenile, considering he stayed much closer to a hot pace than Essential Quality and weakened in the final furlong. Jackie’s Warrior should have little difficulty securing an easy lead in the Southwest, which sets the stage for a rebound. I believe he can turn the tables on Essential Quality and post a mild upset Saturday.

Let’s bet Jackie’s Warrior on top of Essential Quality in a cold exacta, then add a small trifecta, with #5 Santa Cruiser (12-1) and #7 Spielberg (9-2) in the third-place spot.