Betting the $3,846 Super High 5 carryover at Churchill Downs

June 15th, 2024

When 21-1 longshot Lil Town Sis won the Friday finale at Churchill Downs, it triggered a $3,846 Super High 5 carryover into Saturday’s card.

Bettors hoping to win a share will have to decipher Race 2, a $10,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. The eight-horse field is led by #4 Goldys Lock (5-2), who is dropping in class out of two $50,000 maiden claimers sprinting six furlongs on the Kentucky circuit.

Some bettors might hesitate to support Goldys Lock because her latest effort at Churchill Downs produced a 10th-place finish, far worse than her second-place run two starts back at Keeneland. But those efforts actually produced similar Brisnet Speed ratings (67 and 71), so it appears the Churchill race was simply faster and more competitive than the one at Keeneland. In any case, Goldys Lock owns the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings in Saturday’s field, so dropping into a $10,000 maiden claimer should be sufficient to earn a victory.

Who are the other main contenders? Certainly we must consider #8 Xtra Extraordinary (3-1), who is dropping blinkers after finishing seventh and sixth in a pair of $20,000 maiden claimers at Churchill Downs. Three starts back, the three-year-old filly finished third in a $40,000 maiden claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland (earning a 67 Brisnet Speed rating), so her best effort is good enough to contend against $10,000 company.

First-time starter #2 Crafty Gal (7-2) is worth a long look as well. Trainer Wesley Ward wins at a lofty 32% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and Crafty Gal is a daughter of Kantharos, who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters.

#1 Maui Mistress (9-2), who has competed exclusively against maiden special weight competition so far, could factor while dropping in class and adding Lasix for her three-year-old debut. Trainer Bret Calhoun wins at a 24% rate with horses transitioning from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

Let’s key Goldys Lock on top in the Super High 5 while emphasizing Xtra Extraordinary, Crafty Gal, and Maui Mistress underneath:

  • $1 Super High 5: 4 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,5,8 with 1,2,5,8 with 1,2,3,5,8 ($36)

Good luck!