Betting the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct

The final Grade 1 race on the 2020 New York racing calendar is shaping up to be an excellent betting event. Nine horses have been entered in Saturday’s $250,000 Cigar Mile H. (G1) at Aqueduct, and there are plenty of viable contenders for handicappers to consider.

Plenty of folks figure to back #4 Firenze Fire, who enters off a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). An 11-time stakes winner, Firenze Fire brings a bevy of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings to the equation and looms as a logical contender for victory.

But Firenze Fire has spent the majority of his career sprinting, and while he did win the 2017 Champagne (G1) racing a mile as a 2-year-old, he hasn’t won running longer than seven furlongs since July 2018. For these reasons, I’m tempted to oppose Firenze Fire with #1 Performer.

Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, Performer lost his debut at Aqueduct two years ago, but has gone undefeated in five starts since then. He was particularly sharp in the 1 1/8-mile Discovery (G3) at Aqueduct last fall, parlaying pace-pressing tactics into victory by 1 1/4 lengths over graded stakes winner Tax.

After spending 10 1/2 months on the sidelines, Performer returned to action in a 1-mile allowance race on Oct. 17 at Belmont, and the result was eye-catching. Racing over a muddy surface, Performer tracked the pace before taking command to win with complete authority in a snappy 1:33.93. His margin of victory wasn’t stunning—just 1 3/4 lengths—but Performer was never asked for his best run and clearly had a lot left in the tank.

With this sharp comeback effort under his belt, I’m optimistic Performer will produce a winning effort in the Cigar Mile. In a race without a ton of pace on paper, Performer has the tactical speed to sit a perfect trip, likely stalking #5 Mr. Buff and perhaps #6 King Guillermo through the early going. For good measure, he’s slated to tote just 118 pounds, five fewer than Firenze Fire. This is a handicap race, remember!

A win bet on Performer will be our first order of business, but we’ll also key him on top of a trifecta emphasizing Firenze Fire, Mr. Buff, and King Guillermo underneath.

$18 to win on #1 Performer
$0.50 trifecta: 1 with 4,5,6 with 2,4,5,6,8 ($6)
$0.50 trifecta: 1 with 2,4,5,6,8 with 4,5,6 ($6)
Total: $30

Good luck!