Betting the Los Alamitos Futurity

Trainer Bob Baffert has won the $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) a record 12 times, including all six renewals since the race moved to Los Alamitos from Hollywood Park in 2014.

So, when a half-dozen runners line up to contest Saturday’s renewal of the Futurity, it’s easy to assume Baffert’s #6 Spielberg (5-2) will be tough to beat.

Sold for $1 million as a yearling, Spielberg has already shown promise against tough company. He placed second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and third in the American Pharoah (G1), so shouldn’t victory in Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile test be a mere formality?

Not necessarily.

Spielberg faltered in his most recent run, when he faded to finish fourth, by 9 1/2 lengths, in the 7-furlong Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar. Perhaps this disappointing effort was a fluke, but Spielberg’s form has slipped since the summer, when he was beaten just 1 3/4 lengths in the Del Mar Futurity.

Even a peak effort from Spielberg might not be enough to beat Saturday’s field. The Los Alamitos Futurity is a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race that awards 10 qualification points to the winner, so Spielberg isn’t the only talented runner in the mix.

#1 Red Flag (1-1), for example, turned in a powerful effort to crush the Bob Hope by 7 1/4 lengths. Trained by John Shirreffs, Red Flag has shown versatility in terms of running style and is clearly progressing in the right direction, which stamps the chestnut colt as a logical alternative to Spielberg.

But the most dangerous contender of all might be #2 Petruchio (4-1), who has shown steady improvement after he was gelded, stretched out in distance, switched to turf, and added blinkers. The son of leading sire Into Mischief delivered a particularly promising effort Oct. 31 at Del Mar, where he rallied to win a 1-mile grass maiden race by 1 3/4 lengths. He was full on run down the homestretch and appeared to win with something left in the tank.

Petruchio’s pedigree suggests a return to dirt won’t be an issue, and jockey Mike Smith will retain the mount for trainer Richard Mandella. Sharp recent workouts suggest Petruchio is sitting on a big effort at a fair price.

Let’s play Petruchio and Red Flag together in the trifecta, with Spielberg and improving longshot #3 The Great One (15-1) underneath.

$6.50 trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,6 ($26)
$2 trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3 ($4)
Total: $30

Good luck!