Betting with, and against, No Nay Mets in the William Walker

April 29th, 2024

An overflow field of 15 turf dashers is entered for the $300,000 William Walker S. at Churchill Downs on Wednesday. One of two stakes races on the card, the 5 1/2-furlong heat for three-year-olds attracted a deep field of talented runners, led by three-time stakes hero #6 No Nay Mets (3-1). 

No Nay Mets – With

  • $5 Trifecta: key 6 with 1,4,11 ($30)
  • 30-cent Superfecta: 6 with 1,4,11 with 1,4,11 with ALL ($16.20)

No Nay Mets – Against

$15 win and place #11 Silent Heart ($30)
10-cent Superfecta: 1,4,11 with 1,4,6,11 with 1,4,6,11 with ALL ($16.20)

The colt tired late to finish fourth in the Palisades at Keeneland in his sophomore bow, and he will improve second time off the shelf. Irad Ortiz Jr. will put this one in the mix from the break in his local debut. 

Trained by George Weaver, the exciting son of No Nay Never was a fine debut winner at Gulfstream Park in May prior to traveling to Royal Ascot for the Norfolk S. (G2), which resulted in a respectable ninth-place result. A pair of facile stakes wins followed the European journey, and he capped his two-year-old campaign with a close fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) at Santa Anita. 

For those looking elsewhere in the sizable cast, the Brian Lynch-trained #11 Silent Heart (12-1) is a nice alternative at a square price. The Terry Hamilton homebred didn’t have an ideal trip when fading late in the Palisades, but he figures to sit in a fine spot to the top of the lane on Wednesday. John Velazquez will pilot the pace presser. 

#4 Refuel (7-2), the second choice on the morning line, has improved his Brisnet Speed number in each showing for Todd Pletcher. The speedy son of Hard Spun was a nice third in the Palisades after contesting a fast tempo from the 12 post, and a more sensible trip will give him a winning chance inside of the final furlong in this one. Regular rider Luis Saez retains the mount. 

Team Valor’s #1 Mansa Musa (4-1) is plenty quick and also displayed a nice turn of foot when falling a neck shy in the Palisades in his 2024 debut. I have some fears that the Irish-bred son of Ten Sovereigns could encounter traffic from the rail in a big field, but a clear run will make him a logical win threat in his second attempt on U. S. green. Junior Alvarado will be in the stirrups once again.