Breeders’ Cup Saturday: How to bet the All-Dirt Pick 4

November 2nd, 2023

A new wager has been added to the Breeders’ Cup betting menu for 2023: an All-Dirt Pick 4 on Saturday’s action-packed card.

The 50-cent wager encompasses the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 5), the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Race 7), the Breeders’ Cup Classic (Race 9), and the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Race 11).

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence and assemble a ticket for $36:

Race 5: Filly & Mare Sprint (G1, seven furlongs)

Reigning Filly & Mare Sprint winner #1 Goodnight Olive (6-5) is a logical favorite while exiting a strong runner-up finish in the Ballerina H. (G1) at Saratoga, but you can make a case Goodnight Olive hasn’t been quite as sharp this season as she was in 2022, when she went 4-for-4 on her way to being voted champion female sprinter at the Eclipse Awards.

#7 Society (5-2) is a formidable rival worth including. The occasionally brilliant daughter of Gun Runner dominated Ellis Park’s seven-furlong Chicago (G3) in the track-record time of 1:20.54 and followed up with a fast 5 1/2-length win in the Pink Ribbon S. at Charles Town. Society has beaten quality competition and boasts an abundance of early speed, so they’ll have to catch her to beat her.

Race 7: Distaff (G1, 1 1/8 miles)

#4 Idiomatic (5-2) is the filly to beat after posting blowout gate-to-wire wins in the Personal Ensign (G1) and Spinster (G1), but she secured uncontested leads and set slow fractions in both of those races. She’s facing a couple of high-profile pace rivals in the Distaff, so if a fast pace unfolds, it could leave Idiomatic vulnerable in the final furlong.

We’ll use two horses as backup. Four-time Grade 1 winner #9 Clairiere (4-1) is a strong stretch-runner who has been beaten by less than one length combined in the last two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. #3 Pretty Mischievous (8-1) has won three Grade 1 prizes this year, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), and has an off-the-pace running style that could prove beneficial in this pace-packed Distaff field.

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Race 9: Classic (G1, 1 1/4 miles)

Gate-to-wire Pacific Classic (G1) winner #12 Arabian Knight (3-1) has recently turned in a couple of strong seven-furlong workouts at Santa Anita, which should help offset his relative inexperience. The speedy three-year-old beat Grade 1 winners Geaux Rocket Ride and Slow Down Andy in the Pacific Classic and figures to sit a favorable trip setting or stalking the pace in his toughest test to date.

Japanese raiders #8 Ushba Tesoro (4-1) and #5 Derma Sotogake (20-1) showed talent in Dubai earlier this year, respectively winning the Dubai World Cup (G1) and UAE Derby (G2). Neither can be dismissed from win consideration in the Classic. We’ll round out with #3 White Abarrio (4-1), who trounced next-out graded stakes winners #2 Zandon (12-1) and Cody’s Wish in a fast renewal of the Whitney (G1) last time out.

MUCCIOLO: The 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic Tipsheet

Race 11: Sprint (G1, six furlongs)

Reigning Sprint winner #8 Elite Power (9-5) is 3-for-4 this year, most notably winning the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) during the summer at Saratoga. But the stretch-running five-year-old finished a pace-compromised second in the Forego (G1) when last seen, and there isn’t a crazy amount of speed in this Sprint field, so it’s possible Elite Power is vulnerable to another upset.

We’ll use Elite Power in the All-Dirt Pick 4, but our top choice is #7 Speed Boat Beach (3-1). Conditioned by five-time Sprint-winning trainer Bob Baffert, Speed Boat Beach recently returned from a 10-month layoff to finish second in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) over the Breeders’ Cup track and distance, beaten only a head after dueling for the lead. He’s trained powerfully since then and is eligible to move forward in his second run of the season, especially if allowed to set or press a modest pace.

#6 The Chosen Vron (5-1) is also worth including. The California-bred gelding has won eight straight races and beat Santa Anita Sprint Championship winner #2 Dr. Schivel (5-1) in the Bing Crosby (G1) during the summer at Del Mar.

  • 50-cent All-Dirt Pick 4: 1,7 with 3,4,9 with 3,5,8,12 with 6,7,8 ($36)

Good luck!