Breeders' Cup: Finding Vulnerable Favorites in the 2025 Breeders' Cup
She Feels Pretty wins the E.P. Taylor Stakes at Woodbine. (Photo by Michael Burns Photography)
October 24th, 2025
Whether it's the Breeders' Cup or a run-of-the-mill card at Podunk Downs, an important part of betting strategy is determining whether the likely favorite is one to back or fade (in part or altogether).
The results of last year's Breeders' Cup at Del Mar showed five winning favorites out of 14 races. Five losing favorites placed, while four ran out of the money. The latter group included the heaviest favorite in the series, 4-5 choice Cogburn in the Turf Sprint (G1).
Who are the potential favorites to be wary of in the win pool?
Everyone will have opinions, and here are mine.
Bentornato gets a workout ahead of Breeders Cup. (Photo by Hodges Photo)
Bentornato: Sprint (G1)
Beaten a mere half-length in last year's Sprint as a 28-1 outsider, Bentornato has since done little to suggest he won't be another big factor in this renewal. He also has done little, period.
Bentornato did not race again after the 2004 Sprint until the Sept. 13 Louisville Thoroughbred Society S. at Churchill Downs. He showed no signs of needing a race when crushing his rivals by more than five lengths while recording a 103 Brisnet Speed rating. Others rated the performance higher, his fastest ever in his 10-race career.
If the latter view is correct, then Bentornato could be poised for a letdown, or bounce, in only his second start in 12 months. It's also worth noting that favorites in the Sprint have won at a below-average rate, especially at Breeders' Cups held in Southern California.
Although Bentornato owns the home field advantage, I'd creatively handicap and bet the race with a possible upset in mind.
RELATED: Discover five ways to determine a vulnerable favorite
Notable Speech wins the Woodbine Mile at Woodbine. (Photo by Michael Burns Photo)
Notable Speech: Mile (G1)
Third in last year's Mile as the 2-1 favorite, Notable Speech might or might not occupy that distinction again in a contentious betting affair. If he does, I'd be wary.
Notable Speech enters this edition of the Mile with some of the same concerns as he did a year ago. The biggest is inconsistency. Last year, he entered the Mile having been unplaced in two of his three previous starts. This time, he's shaken off the effects of three unplaced finishes to start the season by narrowly missing in the Prix Jacques le Marois (G1) and winning the Woodbine Mile (G1), albeit against a weak field at 2-5.
If last year's Mile is any indication, Notable Speech doesn't have a lot of room for error. And as the potential betting favorite, he certainly isn't going to offer much in the way of value.
RELATED: Stakes histories can identify strong or vulnerable favorites
She Feels Pretty (Photo by Maryland Jockey Club/Jerry Dzierwinski)
She Feels Pretty: Filly & Mare Turf (G1)
She Feels Pretty has enjoyed an Eclipse Award-worthy season up to this point, and might still secure a championship regardless of what happens in this race. However, this elongated 1 3/8-mile test might not work to her advantage.
That's especially true if her effort in the 1 1/4-mile E.P. Taylor (G1) in August is any indication. Heavily favored at around 2-5, She Feels Pretty just barely held on over returning rival Diamond Rain, who uncorked her rally too late while forced to overcome a slow pace after breaking tardily. She's one example of a filly who should relish the slight step up in trip.
I'm not as convinced She Feels Pretty will similarly thrive around three turns. Her class will take her a long way, but others offer more appeal for the win.
She Feels Pretty wins the G1 E.P. Taylor at @woodbinetb and she's in the @breederscup! @ljlmvel was aboard for trainer @reredevaux! 🏆 pic.twitter.com/yiEgfNBKzE
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) August 16, 2025
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