Chasing carryovers: $3,520 Fair Grounds Pick 6, $11,594 Turf Paradise Pick 5

March 12th, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to play (or oppose) in a pair of Sunday carryovers: the $3,520 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds and the $11,594 Pick 5 at Turf Paradise.

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $3,520 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

The Sunday card at Fair Grounds brings a $3,520 carryover in the $1 Pick 6. Not counting also-eligible and main-track-only entrants, the six-race sequence contains 52 entries, averaging 8.7 per race.

One of the trickier legs to handicap is Race 3, a maiden special weight for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt. It’s challenging because morning line favorite #1 Drewsilla (2-1) has gone 0-for-14 with five seconds and two thirds, indicating she has a tendency to settle for minor awards. Indeed, she’s cracked the trifecta without winning in seven of her last eight starts, including two recent runs over this track, distance, and class level.

The problem is, Drewsilla isn’t facing the toughest field, and it’s hard to predict who might spring an upset. Ultimately, #3 Entitlement (9-2) and #7 Calling (4-1) may offer the most appeal. Both have placed sprinting over this track and class level, and both are running long on dirt for the first time, opening the door for improvement. Entitlement might have a slightly better pedigree for stretching out in distance, but Calling has hot jockey Brian Hernandez in her corner, so both are worth including in the Pick 6.

Turf Paradise, Race 4: $11,594 Pick 5 carryover (5:54 p.m. ET)

If you’re thinking to yourself, “I’d love to chase a five-figure, non-jackpot Pick 5 carryover today,” then you’ll be happy to hear Turf Paradise is obliging with an $11,594 prize pool up for grabs in their 50-cent Pick 5.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Try #4 Tiz the Prospect (5-2) in Race 5, an $8,500 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt. She’s only run twice so far, finishing fourth in a $30,000 maiden optional claimer and fifth in a $30,000 maiden claimer.

Both of those races took place over six furlongs at Turf Paradise, and on both occasions Tiz the Prospect displayed early speed. She’s trained sharply in preparation for her third start (even clocking a bullet half-mile in :47 on March 6), and trainer Manuel Ortiz Sr. wins at a 21% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. Throw in hot jockey Daniel Vergara (a 22% winner at Turf Paradise this meet), and Tiz the Prospect looks ready to win this largely paceless $8,500 maiden claimer.

Good luck!