Churchill Downs: Horse racing pick of the day for Nov. 11

Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.

Wednesday, Nov. 11

Churchill Downs, Race 9: Maiden special weight (6 furlongs, 5:06 p.m. ET)

#3 Fastly (7-5 on the morning line) is a deserving favorite, after he hit the board in his first five starts for trainer Bret Calhoun. But, although he has posted four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 83-90 range, I’m not convinced Fastly is a standout against #12 Steely Danza (12-1).

Steely Danza fired off a big effort in his Dec. 28 debut sprinting 6 furlongs at Fair Grounds, where he chased fast fractions of :21.43 and :45.40, then settled for second place, behind future graded stakes performer Digital. This testing effort over a muddy track seemed to affect Steely Danza, as he was soundly beaten in his next three starts (including a pair of two-turn routes), before he headed to the sideline.

I’m optimistic Steely Danza will show significant improvement Wednesday, in his return from a 7 1/2-month layoff. He will cut back to 6 furlongs and also drop blinkers, a successful move 38% of the time for trainer Steve Margolis. If Steely Danza runs back to the 89 Brisnet Speed rating he posted on debut, he can vie for victory at a big price.

Let’s bet Steely Danza to win and play him in the exacta with Fastly.

$10 to win on #12 Steely Danza
$12 exacta: 3 with 12
$3 exacta: 13 with 3
Total: $25

Good luck!