Churchill Downs: Horse racing pick of the day for Nov. 19

Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.

Thursday, Nov. 19

Churchill Downs, Race 8: Allowance/optional claiming (1 mile, 4:36 p.m. ET)

#1 Dreams of Valor (9-2 on the morning line) hasn’t missed the board in his last five starts on dirt, including a pair of runner-up efforts sprinting on the California circuit. The son of Majestic Warrior has also been effective racing a mile and looks dangerous in his first start with high-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro.

Dreams of Valor brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings, and his frontrunning style should produce a significant tactical advantage. In a race without much speed on paper, Dreams of Valor figures to shake loose on an easy lead after a break from the rail. From there, he’ll be tough to run down at a fair price.

#6 Hembree (3-1) and #7 Gun It (5-2) can battle to round out the exacta, but a win bet on Dreams of Valor will be our main play.

$22 to win on #1 Dreams of Valor
$4 exacta: 1 with 6,7 ($8)
Total: $30

Good luck!