Churchill Downs: How to bet the $5,188 Super High 5 carryover

September 17th, 2023

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 in Saturday’s final race at Churchill Downs, which means there’s a $5,188 carryover up for grabs on Sunday.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 2, a $30,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. It’s a tricky race to handicap because none of the entrants have tackled 1 1/16 miles yet, and all of the entrants are either dropping in class or are unraced.

In other words, there’s not a lot of reliable form to go on. But at least some horses have shown flashes of ability. Like #6 Patch O’Brien (3-1), who has hit the board twice against maiden special weight competition on the Kentucky circuit, including when third in his debut sprinting five furlongs at Churchill Downs. And #7 Master Switch (4-1), runner-up by a head in a $50,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Ellis Park turf course. And #8 Yuletide Gallop (7-2), who showed tactical speed before weakening to finish sixth when debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight at Ellis Park.

But none of the experienced runners have posted a Brisnet Speed rating that meets or exceeds the par winning number (75) for Sunday’s conditions, so perhaps the first-time starter #1 Del Rayo (4-1) can win on debut. Two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox strikes at a 25% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther, and Del Rayo has shown some speed during morning training, most notably clocking a quick half-mile from the Turfway Park starting gate in :47 4/5 earlier this month.

Del Rayo has the pedigree to handle 1 1/16 miles and is slated to be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, the dominant jockey at Churchill Downs in recent years. A competitive debut seems likely, so what if we start constructing our Super High 5 tickets by counting on Del Rayo to finish either first or second?

Patch O’Brien, Master Switch, and Yuletide Gallop are the others we’ll strongly emphasize, and we’ll round out our tickets with #5 Jack Is Back (12-1), #9 Richiesderbystrike (8-1), and #10 Mor Jazz (15-1).

  • $1 Super High 5: 1 with 6,7,8 with 6,7,8 with 6,7,8 with 5,9,10 ($18)
  • $1 Super High 5: 1 with 6,7,8 with 6,7,8 with 5,9,10 with 6,7,8 ($18)
  • $1 Super High 5: 6,7,8 with 1 with 6,7,8 with 6,7,8 with 5,9,10 ($18)
  • $1 Super High 5: 6,7,8 with 1 with 6,7,8 with 5,9,10 with 6,7,8 ($18)
    Total: $72

Good luck!