Churchill Downs: How to bet the Golden Rod

Although 10 talented 2-year-old fillies have been entered to race in Saturday’s $200,000 Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill Downs, I will be genuinely surprised—maybe even shocked—if #8 Simply Ravishing (1-1) fails to reach the winner’s circle.

From a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, Simply Ravishing towers over her opponents in the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep race, which awards 10 qualification points to the winner. The daughter of Laoban won her first three starts in impressive fashion, highlighted by a 6 1/4-length romp in the 1 1/16-mile Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland.

Simply Ravishing subsequently endured a troubled trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), where the normally speedy filly broke slowly and spent most of the race bottled up in traffic. Despite never getting a clear path to run, Simply Ravishing fought on gamely between rivals down the stretch to finish fourth against a top-class field, beaten two noses for the runner-up spot.

Even if defeat, Simply Ravishing posted a strong 97 Brisnet Speed rating, her third straight figure in the 97-98 range. Considering none of her Golden Rod rivals have ever exceeded the 90 mark, Simply Ravishing looks like a shoo-in to prevail if she brings anything close to her A-game. Best of all, drawing post 8 should ensure the daughter of Laoban receives an unencumbered trip this time around.

The side effect of Simply Ravishing’s dominant form is her short price on the morning line—she’s favored at 1-1 and might dip even lower by post time. There isn’t much value in betting Simply Ravishing to win, so playing her on top in the trifecta and superfecta is the key to making a significant wagering score.

For the minor awards, #3 Coach (6-1) is an obvious contender. The Brad Cox trainee is unbeaten and virtually unchallenged in three starts, most recently posting a 2 1/2-length triumph in the 1 1/16-mile Rags to Riches S. at Churchill Downs.

But from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, #6 Clairiere (6-1) is slightly faster. The stretch-running daughter of Curlin overcame a slow pace to win her debut racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill last month, putting up a 90 Brisnet Speed rating for hot jockey/trainer duo Ricardo Santana and Steve Asmussen. Produced by the Grade 1-winning Bernardini mare Cavorting, Clairiere is bred to improve with maturity and appears to have a very bright future.

We’ll round out our tickets with #5 Travel Column (5-1), who finished third behind Simply Ravishing in the Alcibiades, and #10 Alexandria (15-1), whose lone defeat from five starts came when chasing a fast pace to a third-place finish in Churchill’s Pocahontas (G3).

$7 trifecta: 8 with 3,6 with 3,6,5,10 ($42)
$1 superfecta: 8 with 3,6 with 3,6 with 5,10 ($4)
$1 superfecta: 8 with 3,6 with 5,10 with 3,6 ($4)
Total: $50

Good luck!