Churchill Downs: How to bet the Kentucky Jockey Club

While it’s tempting to favor the proven runners in Saturday’s $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, an intriguing bit of handicapping history suggests this isn’t the safest approach.

#2 Sittin On Go, #4 Keepmeinmind, and #8 King Fury need no introduction. They’re already veterans of the Road to the Kentucky Derby, placing ninth, third, and seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) three weeks ago. All are accomplished stakes performers with encouraging resumes—Sittin On Go was an easy winner of the Iroquois (G3), Keepmeinmind finished second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), and King Fury boasts a victory in the Street Sense S.

Of the trio, my preference is for King Fury, who sprinted the final five-sixteenths of the Street Sense in less than :30 seconds to beat the Grade 1-placed Super Stock by half a length. A beautifully-bred son of Curlin out of the Grade 1-winning mare Taris, King Fury ran evenly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile while returning on short rest, and should be even sharper while adding blinkers for the Kentucky Jockey Club. The fact he’s already won over the track and 1 1/16-mile distance of Saturday’s race is a positive.

But here’s the thing—since 2006, only one Breeders’ Cup Juvenile participant has managed to claim victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Generally, the race favors up-and-comers who have yet to make their mark against elite competition. With this in mind, #1 Swill looms as an intriguing candidate to upset the favorites and claim 10 Kentucky Derby qualification points.

Conditioned by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, Swill was beaten in his first two starts before adding blinkers for a 7-furlong sprint on Sept. 24 at Churchill, which he dominated by three lengths in gate-to-wire fashion. This sharp performance produced a solid 89 Brisnet Speed rating, and runner-up Santa Cruiser reiterated the quality of the race by returning to win his next start.

In a race without much pace on paper, Swill has a chance to shake loose on an easy lead under hot jockey Florent Geroux. A relaxed journey should be in the offing since Swill is slated to drop his blinkers for the Kentucky Jockey Club, a winning move 35% of the time for Cox. A bullet 5-furlong workout in :59 4/5 on Nov. 14 cements Swill as a serious contender for victory.

Let’s play Swill and King Fury on top in the trifecta while adding Sittin On Go, Keepmeinmind, and #6 Inspector Frost underneath.

$1 trifecta: 1,8 with 1,2,4,6,8 with 1,2,4,6,8 ($24)
$1 trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 2,4,6 ($6)
$1 trifecta: 1,8 with 2,4,6 with 1,8 ($6)
Total: $36

Good luck!