Churchill Downs: Multiple five-figure carryovers on tap for Nov. 28

The theme of unpredictable results continued on Friday at Churchill Downs, with a series of upset winners triggering a pair of hefty carryovers for Saturday’s "Stars of Tomorrow" card.

The competitive program will feature a dozen races exclusively for 2-year-olds, including a pair of $200,000 graded stakes serving as steppingstones toward the 2021 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1). Since lightly-raced juveniles can be difficult to handicap, additional upset winners (and correspondingly large payoffs) could well be in the offing.

Friday recap

Although favorites prevailed in three of the first five races on Friday, their streak of luck ended as soon as the Single 6 began. The final six races of the afternoon were all won in upset fashion by runners starting at 3-1 or higher, including a pair of double-digit winners to end the card.

The finale was especially challenging for chalk players. The scratch of expected favorite Silverbella turned the race upside down, and replacement favorite My Mane Girl doubled down on the chaos by stumbling at the start and finishing sixth at odds of 1-1. Up front, 17-1 shot Atlanta battled to victory by a neck over 12-1 shot Shell Shock, with Favorite Sin (7-1), Bellucci (19-1), and Speighty Shirl (5-2) rounding out the top five.

For the second straight day, no one managed to cash the Super Hi-5, prompting a carryover of $21,908 for the Saturday card. No one managed to hit the Single 6 either, which means a $44,897 jackpot will be up for grabs during the "Stars of Tomorrow" program.

Saturday insights

The Single 6 gets underway in Race 7, a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claiming race for fillies. #1 Good With Numbers (2-1) was compromised by destructive speed duels in her first two starts before dropping in class for a $150,000 maiden claiming race, where she rated behind modest fractions before pouncing to a 6 3/4-length victory. The Steve Asmussen trainee is a deserving favorite even while stepping back up the class ladder, but working out a clean trip from her rail draw could be tricky.

Race 9, the $200,000 Golden Rod (G2), provides a possible single in the form of #8 Simply Ravishing (1-1). A runaway winner of the Alcibiades (G1) two starts back, the Kenny McPeek trainee endured a slow start and a traffic-filled trip when finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She’s dropping in class for the Golden Rod and towers over the field in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, so anything less than a victory would come as a surprise.

Colts and geldings will get their chance to shine in Race 11, the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) alumni #1 Sittin On Go (5-1), #4 Keepmeinmind (6-5), and #7 King Fury (6-1) are the logical favorites, but in a race without much pace on paper, don’t sleep on the chances of #2 Swill (6-1). A decisive gate-to-wire maiden winner sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs, the son of Munnings is a front-running threat for hot jockey/trainer duo Florent Geroux and Brad Cox.

The Super Hi-5 carryover is up for grabs in Race 12, a 7-furlong maiden special weight that also serves as the finale of the Single 6. If you were hoping for an easy race to end the day, I’m afraid you’re bound for disappointment. With 12 horses in the main body of the field, plus four also-eligibles on the outside looking in, the race looks like a beast to handicap.

Potentially, #7 Outasite (3-1) could be a horse to count on. Sold for $380,000, the son of Outwork carved out the pace in his debut over this track and distance before weakening slightly to finish fourth. He’s trained sharply since then and will drop blinkers for trainer Brad Cox, who strikes at a 35% rate when making this move.

But Outasite isn’t a standout in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings and actually finished behind #9 Sabuda (6-1) and #16 Wellman (12-1) in his debut, so although singling the bay colt in the Single 6 (and on top in the Super Hi-5) is tempting from a cost-cutting perspective, it could also be a risky strategy. My advice? See how scratches change the complexion of the field, then back him up with a couple of other logical contenders.

Good luck!