Churchill Downs spot plays and Pick 3 for Saturday, May 13

May 12th, 2023

Churchill Downs will host an 11-race card on Saturday, highlighted by the $225,000 William Walker S. Below we provide spot plays for the three races preceding the 5 1/2-furlong turf event and a Pick 3 ticket covering Races 7-9.

  • $1 Pick 3: 2,6,9 with 3 with 2,4,5,6,11 ($15)

Race 7: 1 3/8 miles (turf), allowance, 3yo and up 

Morning line favorite #12 Foreign Relations (7-2) crossed the wire first in an allowance at Keeneland last out, but was disqualified to last, with his jockey suspended for careless riding due to a move in midstretch that caused a rival to clip heels. In his first start at Churchill, the Karakontie five-year-old will get a jockey change to Julien Leparoux, just a 2% winner in his last 81 turf rides, while trainer Conor Murphy is just a 10% winner in his last 105 turf starts.

Let's stand against Foreign Relations and back #2 F Five (10-1), who may improve in his second turf start for Brian Lynch after finishing a nose second in a 1 1/8-mile allowance last out.

We'll also include #9 Jarreau (4-1) in the first leg of our Pick 3 ticket. The six-year-old gelding finished 3 1/4 lengths behind F Five in that 1 1/8-mile allowance at Keeneland last out, but the Pioneerof the Nile son can improve in his second start off a layoff and will pick up rider Tyler Gaffalione, a 21% winner this meet.

#6 Bold Looker (20-1) is also an intriguing longshot who was elevated to second following the disqualification of Foreign Relations last out in the 1 1/2-mile turf allowance at Keeneland. Trainer Ian Wilkes is a 14% winner with horses making their second turf start, and Yoel Navas (9-1-1-1 to start the meet) will pick up the mount.

Race 8: one mile, claiming, 3yo and up non-winners of two races

#3 Crump (3-1) hit the board in his last three when racing 1 1/16 miles and will cut back in distance while dropping down to the claiming level for Brendan Walsh, a 27% winner this meet. The Into Mischief gelding recorded Brisnet Speed figures in the 88-90 range and may improve with the shorter distance today. Crump will also get a rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione, a 23% winner this meet who is 11-3-1-2 paired with Walsh over the last 14 days.

We'll single Crump and play him over stablemate and morning line favorite #5 Tepeu (5-2), who returned off a six-month layoff to race in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland on April 15 and finished seventh by 17 lengths while recording a 75 Brisnet speed figure. He'll regain rider Ricardo Santana Jr., who romped to a 7 1/2-length victory in a $120K maiden special weight at Churchill with the Tapit gelding back in July 2022. But since moving up in class, the four-year-old has failed to win in his last three starts. He's also never raced over a mile.

Race 9: 6 furlongs, allowance optional claimer, 3yo and up fillies and mares

The final leg of the sequence is the most wide open, so we'll spread deep in the third leg, beginning with #2 Top Gun Girl (6-1). The four-year-old filly bumped an inner rival at the start when setting the pace in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer at Keeneland and weakened to seventh, but the Wesley Ward trainee can improve second off the layoff and with a slight cutback in distance. Walter Rodriguez, a 20% winner in sprints, will pick up the mount.

We'll also include lukewarm morning line favorite #5 Your So Sillea (4-1), who was beaten by a neck in the same race at Keeneland. Trainer Phil Sims is a 17% winner at the allowance level, and Jack Gilligan will retain the mount. The Lea filly also posted a bullet four-furlong workout May 6 at Keeneland and is 1-for-1 at Churchill, as well as 6-2-3-0 at today’s distance.

#6 Portilla (9-2) is worth including with a rider switch to Luis Saez. The Dialed In mare was last seeing finishing third at today’s distance at Oaklawn in January and will return off a more than three-month layoff for Al Stall Jr., a 17% winner at the allowance level. The five-year-old owns a 5-2-2-0 record at Churchill and a 4-1-2-1 record at today’s distance.

#11 Adaline Julia (8-1) makes her fifth career start and has never finished worse than second. The Oxbow filly was beaten 1 1/2 lengths last out in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer over a muddy Oaklawn track. The four-year-old can improve second start off the layoff and will regain Cristian Torres, who won both of his previous starts with the Robertino Diodoro pupil.

Finally, #4 Somebody’s Problem (8-1) will race on Lasix a second time for Greg Foley and will get jockey Tyler Gaffalione aboard. The first time the filly ran on Lasix, she romped to a 4 1/2-length victory at today's distance back in August in the Prairie Meadows Debutante. Last out, she finished fourth by 1 3/4 lengths in the Serena's Song S. on Turfway's all-weather and has put in a pair of fast workouts ahead of this event.