Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Closing day at Colonial Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Sept. 7 at Colonial Downs, including a horse to single in the $7,373 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in September.
• 8x Rewards Points at Fort Erie: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Fort Erie on Monday, Sept. 7.
• $10 Bet Back at Colonial Downs: Opt in and receive a Bonus Bet up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second or third in select races at Colonial Downs on Monday, Sept. 7.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $150 Saratoga Challenge
• $200 Saratoga Feeder to 9/12 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $200 Kentucky Downs Feeder to 9/19 Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $500 Mint Millions Cash Challenge
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 9/18 Churchill Downs BCBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 12:27 p.m. ET)

#6 Overtime Rules (4-1) tired after setting the pace in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on turf at Colonial Downs, finishing sixth by 6 3/4 lengths. But now he’s switching to dirt and dropping blinkers, two changes that could trigger improvement in his second start.

Keep in mind, Overtime Rules is trained by Arnaud Delacour, a 24% winner with second-time starters and a 30% winner with horses removing blinkers.

Let’s place a win bet on Overtime Rules and key him over logical favorite #2 Eleos (1-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Overtime Rules (4-1)
• #2 Eleos (1-1)
• #7 Soupersonic Dancer (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Overtime Rules
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 2
  Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 12:57 p.m. ET)

#2 Hadid (8-1), an Arnaud Delacour trainee, debuted with a fifth-place finish (beaten only 2 1/2 lengths) in a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint at this course and class level.

As mentioned previously, Delacour strikes at a 24% rate with second-time starters. He also wins at a lofty 29% rate with horses running long for the first time, so trainer stats suggest Hadid has a strong chance to shine while stretching out over one mile for her second start.

A win bet is in order. We’ll also single Hadid to start a small daily double.

Selections

• #2 Hadid (8-1)
• #1 Silver Road (5-1)
• #12 Hardscape (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Hadid
• $5 Double: 2 with 6
  Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 1:27 p.m. ET)

#6 Midas Factor (12-1) competed twice in one-mile maiden special weights on turf last year. He rallied to finish fifth (beaten only three lengths) in his debut at Colonial Downs, then tired after setting the pace to finish sixth at Laurel Park.

Midas Factor has been rested since October. Now he’s adding blinkers and Lasix for his first start as a gelding, all of which could yield an improved performance.

High-percentage trainer Brittany Russell wins at a 29% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so let’s try betting Midas Factor to win.

Selections

• #6 Midas Factor (12-1)
• #3 Fosroc (4-5)
• #5 Irish Nunsense (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Midas Factor

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 6: $7,373 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:31 p.m. ET)

The Colonial Downs meet concludes on Monday with a 11-race card featuring six stakes and the mandatory payout of a $7,373 carryover in the 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6.

The Pick 6 is comprised of the six stakes, including the $500,000 Old Dominion Derby (G3) (Race 9) and the $250,000 Old Dominion Oaks (Race 8). Large fields abound, and before scratches the sequence contains a hefty 1,047,816 possible outcomes.

RELATED: Labor Day stakes spot plays for Colonial Downs

If you’re planning to play the Pick 6 and want a single to build tickets around, our best recommendation is #6 Induction (6-5) in Race 7, the $125,000 Kitten’s Joy S. for two-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles on turf.

Best single: Race 7: #6 Induction (6-5)

Nine horses have entered the Kitten’s Joy, though #2 Perfect Dream (9-2) seems virtually certain to scratch after finishing third in the With Anticipation (G3) at Saratoga just two days ago.

That will leave Induction as a formidable favorite. The Graham Motion trainee debuted with a strong showing in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Colonial Downs. After rating in midfield, about three lengths behind a slow pace, Induction finished fast to win by two lengths with a solid 74 Brisnet Speed rating.

Excluding Perfect Dream, only one horse entered in the Kitten’s Joy has earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 74: #1 Life’s Pageant (10-1), who earned a 76 when battling to victory by a head in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer on turf at Colonial. But that was a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, and Life’s Pageant may not replicate the number while stretching out significantly in distance.

Jockey and trainer stats cement Induction as the horse to beat. Motion has been strong at Colonial Downs this meet, winning at a 21% rate. Also, Motion strikes at a strong 25% rate with last-out maiden winners. Finally, jockey Jorge Ruiz has won at a 24% rate teaming up with Motion over the last two months.

By singling Induction, you can reduce the number of Pick 6 possibilities to consider from 1,047,816 down to 116,424. That’s a solid step toward assembling a competitive ticket on an affordable budget.

Good luck!