Clark Stakes: Betting a live longshot to beat vulnerable favorites

If you’re planning to bet the favorites in Friday’s $500,000 Clark (G1) at Churchill Downs, I wish you good luck. You may need it, considering how tough the race appears on paper.

A full field has been entered in the 1 1/8-mile race, and competition figures to be fierce. At first glance, horses like #3 Code of Honor (3-1) and #12 By My Standards (4-1) appear to hold the advantage.

Code of Honor won the Travers (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last season. By My Standards has rattled off four Grade 2 wins and finished a game second in the Whitney (G1) during the summer at Saratoga.

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But Code of Honor and By My Standards both have chinks in their armor. Code of Honor has suffered three straight defeats, albeit while compromised by unfavorable pace scenarios. By My Standards took a step backward when he took on top company in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), his seventh start of a busy campaign. Can he rebound just 20 days later?

The Clark favorites appear vulnerable and tough to trust at short prices. For those reasons, I’m willing to think outside the box and take a chance with a longshot — #11 Coastal Defense (20-1).

A stoutly bred son of Curlin, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, Coastal Defense has shown improvement since he stretched out around two turns on dirt. In a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill Downs, the Dale Romans trainee led all the way to beat Kentucky Derby (G1) alumni Major Fed by 2 1/2 lengths. Then, in the Fayette (G2) at Keeneland, Coastal Defense endured a dreadful trip. He checked, was bumped, and got blocked in traffic, before he rallied to finish fourth, just 1 1/4 lengths behind the winner.

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Considering Coastal Defense never got a chance to lengthen his stride in the Fayette, I’m curious to see what he can do with a clean trip in the Clark. A break from post 11 should ensure an unencumbered journey, and with a trio of triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace ratings under his belt, there is no reason to think Coastal Defense won’t be finishing strongly down the homestretch.

At 20-1, Coastal Defense is definitely worth betting to win. But we’ll also bet him under “ALL” in the exacta, hoping to catch another price horse on top for a massive payoff.

$12 to win on #11 Coastal Defense
$1 exacta: ALL with 11 ($13)
Total: $25

Good luck!