Colonial Downs: A single for the $5,327 Pick 6 carryover

July 15th, 2023

The first two days of the 2023 Colonial Downs race meet have elapsed without anyone hitting the “Old Dominion 6,” a $1 Pick 6 wager with a 15% takeout rate. As a result, there’s a double carryover worth $5,327 up for grabs on Saturday.

That’s an exciting proposition, because the Saturday card is stacked with stakes. To be precise, Colonial Downs is hosting a quartet of $125,000 stakes for Virginia-bred and Virginia-sired horses, and all four are involved in the Pick 6.

Mathematically speaking, this sequence shouldn’t make handicappers shake their heads in confusion. There are 50 entries (averaging about 8.3 horses per race) and 302,400 possible outcomes, which rank as fairly middle of the road numbers for a Pick 6. There are also several short-priced favorites in the sequence, so it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Pick 6 unfolds in relatively chalky fashion and proves decipherable on a modest budget.

That possibility will become more likely if #1 Tufani (4-5) wins Race 6, the Brookmeade S. for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. Conditioned by Michael Stidham, the three-year-old daughter of Distorted Humor finished last in her debut sprinting six furlongs on turf at Aqueduct, but has gone 2-for-2 since stretching out in distance.

Tufani’s first triumph came in a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special weight at Delaware Park, in which she tracked the pace in second place before outdueling Sun Bee to win by a nose. Sun Bee flattered that form by returning to win a nearly identical contest over the same course.

Tufani was even more impressive when stepping up in class for a one-mile grass allowance at Laurel Park. After dropping as many as eight lengths off a fast pace, Tufani rallied boldly to win by 1 1/2 lengths, earning a career-best 85 Brisnet Speed rating.

Only six horses are slated to oppose Tufani in the Brookmeade, and none have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 81 this year. The rail post produced 23% winners over this course and distance during the 2022 Colonial Downs meet, and Tufani’s lightly raced profile leaves her with lots of upside for continued improvement.

The takeaway? Tufani is a compelling choice to single in the Pick 6, which reduces the number of outcomes to consider from 302,400 down to 43,200. That ought to make playing the Pick 6 considerably more straightforward and budget-friendly.

Good luck!