Fair Grounds: A single for the $6,931 Pick 6 carryover

March 9th, 2024

The $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds has proven elusive in recent days. Four straight cards have gone by without anyone solving the sequence, producing a quadruple carryover worth $6,931 for Saturday’s card.

Someone is bound to hit the Pick 6 eventually, but the numbers suggest assembling a winning ticket on Saturday won’t be easy. The six races have drawn a combined 62 horses (averaging about 10.3 per race), which works out to 1,095,120 possible outcomes before scratches.

Fortunately, there’s a viable single in the feature event of the day, the $100,000 Allen “Black Cat” Lacombe Memorial (Race 9) for three-year-old fillies racing about one mile on turf. If we single morning line favorite #10 Pink Polkadots (9-5) in this 10-horse field, we’ll slice the Pick 6 possibilities to consider all the way down to 109,512.

Pink Polkadots is unbeaten and unchallenged in two starts, both over the Fair Grounds turf course. On Dec. 31, she led all the way to dominate a maiden special weight racing about 1 1/16 miles by 3 1/2 lengths, earning a sharp 88 Brisnet Speed rating while counting multiple next-out winners among her beaten rivals. Then on Feb. 1, Pink Polkadots led all the way again to trounce a $100,000 allowance optional claimer over the same distance by 3 1/4 lengths, earning an 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

No horse has ever gotten with two lengths of Pink Polkadots at any call in a race, which is a testament to her abundant speed and talent. And in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, she’s shaping up as a standout against the Lacombe Memorial field. Only one of her rivals has earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 83, and that one horse—#5 Way to Be Marie (5-1)—regressed from her career-best 86 to a 79 when finishing second behind Pink Polkadots in the latter’s allowance optional claiming victory.

There isn’t much speed in Saturday’s field, so Pink Polkadots figures to shake loose on another uncontested lead under regular rider Jaime Torres. A typical performance from Pink Polkadots should be more than sufficient to secure a third victory from as many starts, cementing the daughter of Candy Ride as a compelling Pick 6 single.

Good luck!