Fair Grounds: Analyzing the $1,766 Pick 6 carryover

November 25th, 2023

A busy Thanksgiving week continues with a Saturday card at Fair Grounds highlighted by a $1,766 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The Pick 6 spans Race 4 through Race 9, a challenging sequence containing 66 horses (averaging 11 per race) and 1,548,800 possible outcomes before scratches. Winning a share won’t be easy; if you’re able to assemble a winning ticket, there’s a decent chance you’ll sweep the whole pool.

The feature event of the day is Race 8, the $100,000 Pan Zareta S. for fillies and mares sprinting about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. Viable win contenders are abundant, and Pick 6 bettors may need to spread deep to guarantee survival. Multiple stakes winner #2 Train to Artemus (3-1) is the slim favorite after rallying to finish third in the Franklin (G2) at Keeneland last month, a contest in which she finished less than one length behind 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner Caravel.

But Train to Artemus has lost five straight races, and Brisnet Speed ratings suggest she doesn’t hold an advantage over rivals like #5 Carimba (7-2), winner of $100,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Churchill Downs turf in September, or #8 Goin’ Good (4-1), a consistent stakes winner who finished ahead of Carimba in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Keeneland last month. Even #9 Redifined (8-1), winner of a recent 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill, has the form lines and Brisnet Speed ratings to factor on her best day.

So what if you’re looking for a single to build tickets around? Skip past the Pan Zareta and look at Race 9, a maiden special weight for Louisiana-bred two-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #8 Sonofaship (3-1) has run well in four starts against non-state-restricted maiden special weight competition in Kentucky and Saratoga, even cracking the trifecta on three occasions. He also ran well in a stakes for Louisiana-breds at Evangeline Downs, carving out a quick pace in the D. S. Shine Young Futurity before weakening in the homestretch to finish fourth.

Sonofaship has been freshened (and gelded) since finishing fifth on turf at Saratoga on Sept. 1. He’s adding Lasix for his return and should appreciate dropping into a state-restricted maiden special weight. He’s the fastest of the experienced runners from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, so unless one of the first-time starters fires a big debut, Sonofaship shouldn’t have much trouble graduating as a logical Pick 6 single.

Good luck!