Fair Grounds: Betting the all-stakes Pick 4 on Louisiana Derby Day

One of the best bets Saturday at Fair Grounds is the all-stakes Pick 4 that culminates with the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2).

Although the high-profile wager offers a base bet of 50 cents, the sequence looks straightforward enough to play at a higher price, which will increase the payoff. So, rather than play for the 50-cent minimum, we’ll play the Pick 4 for $2, using two horses per race, for a total cost of $32.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence.

Race 11: New Orleans Classic (G2, 1 1/8 miles, 5:12 p.m. ET)

The classy and consistent #2 Owendale (9-5) fired a nice effort in his 2021 debut, when he rallied up the inside to finish third in Oaklawn Park’s Razorback H. (G3), behind flashy Dubai World Cup (G1) favorite Mystic Guide.

The Razorback was contested over a sloppy track that seemed favorable to outside runners, so Owendale’s rail-skimming effort may have been better than it appeared.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Owendale is the fastest horse in the New Orleans Classic. The only concern is a lack of pace, which could compromise Owendale’s late-running style.

As backup, we’ll include 2019 Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner #1 Roadster (3-1), who has been firing off fast workouts in preparation for his return from a year-long layoff.

Race 12: Muniz Memorial Classic (G2, 1 1/8 miles on turf, 5:43 p.m. ET)

#5 Colonel Liam (3-1) produced a sharp rally to win the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) and is clearly the horse to beat in the Muniz Memorial, though you can argue the Pegasus field wasn’t much tougher than the group Colonel Liam will face at Fair Grounds.

A mid-pack closer, Colonel Liam will have to avoid getting buried in traffic against this large field.

Defending Muniz Memorial winner #1 Factor This (4-1) won’t have to worry about his trip.

A pure speed horse, Factor This is always up and on the pace, a strategy that carried him to five graded stakes wins last season. Factor This has gotten burned up setting or pressing fast fractions in his last few starts, but if he escapes with an easier lead Saturday, a rebound can be in the offing.

Race 13: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2, 1 1/16 miles, 6:14 p.m. ET)

#6 Clairiere (2-1) produced a ground-saving rally to defeat #8 Travel Column (5-2) in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) over this track and distance last month, but you can argue Travel Column idled after she struck the front too soon.

Last fall, Travel Column employed stretch-running tactics to defeat Clairiere by a length in the Golden Rod (G2), so on paper, these two fillies seem pretty evenly matched. We’ll use both.

Race 14: Louisiana Derby (G2, 1 3/16 miles, 6:44 p.m. ET)

#6 Mandaloun (8-5) is going to be a clear favorite, after he won the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, but don’t sleep on the chances of #4 Proxy (7-2).

A stoutly bred Godolphin runner, Proxy has been racing greenly all winter, but nevertheless rallied to finish second, by just 1 1/4 lengths, in the Risen Star.

The longer distance of the Louisiana Derby should suit Proxy, and the addition of blinkers can improve his focus, which opens the door for Proxy to turn the tables on Mandaloun at a fair price.

The ticket

Race 11, $2 Pick 4: 1,2 with 1,5 with 6,8 with 4,6 ($32)

Good luck!