Fair Grounds Early Pick 5 for Feb. 3: Separate early, survive, secure value

February 3rd, 2023

I’ll look to pull away from the crowd early by singling in the first race at Fair Grounds with a runner I am confident in. Yes, he is the favorite in the morning line, but I doubt he will be the favorite come post time. I’ve got no knocks against the likely betting favorites in the next three legs, so I am using them. In the last leg, I’m taking my shot against the logicals with three game price horses who look live and likely to be overlooked based on their connections. 

50-cent Pick 5 = $72

Race 1
Race 2
2B, 3, 4, 5
Race 3
1, 2, 6, 7
Race 4
2, 3, 4
Race 5
2, 5, 6

Race 1, 6 Furlongs, Clm 5000N3L, 4-year-olds & up statebred

#3 Stealing Apriority (2-1) makes his second start for the Justin Jeansonne barn, which has done little wrong this meet. Showed his ability to win with the lead last out when he paired up his previous top figure. Looks likely to take another step forward.

Race 2, 6 Furlongs, Clm 15000N3L, 4-year-olds & up fillies

A return to previous form for #2B Madam Henny (5-2) is not out of the question. #3 Nostalgia's (4-1) Thoro-Graph figures flatter Steve Asmussen’s runner more than the speed figures. The barn says move up in class? I buy it. #4 Medway Queen (10-1) runs like she wants to be outside other horses. Last race, she sat right off Sikum but faltered when the winner came up by her. She was steadied three times in the race prior when set close to other runners. Let’s see if Reylu Gutierrez can work out the right trip for this longshot. #5 Sikum (2-1) has been game to the front in her last two. Now J-Love (Jareth Loveberry) gets the mount for her first run out of Gary Scherer’s barn. Dangerous but a short price. 

Race 3, 6 Furlongs, Md 12500, 3-year-olds & up

#1 Fastnfurious (2-1) drops in class, and his race two back beats these. #2 Premium (9-2) makes his first start since claimed by Alexis Claire, a high percentage angle. Recent bullet work adds confidence. #6 Mongolian Bee (6-1) is by a sire who wins with 19% first-timers. Trainer Miguel Silva wins with 16%. Gotta use. A nice work pattern for #7 Iberian Runner’s (9-2) return to the races. Will likely be overlooked. 

Race 4, 1 1/16 Miles, Clm 30000B, 3-year-olds & up 

#2 Unified Dreams (5-2) could take the step forward needed to beat these. #3 Arabian Prince (3-1) has been consistent and now faces lesser. His regular race is enough if no one else steps forward. #4 Trigger Happy (6-1) figures to be the one to catch, and trainer Donald Habeeb wins often when stretching his runners out.

Race 5, 1 1/16 Miles, Clm 30000N3L, 4-year-olds & up 

#2 He’s Got This (8-1) could be sitting on a nice step forward. His price will be right, given the lesser-known connections, #5 Criminal Defense (6-1) closed into a lone speedster on a golden rail last out. Bobby Barnett moves him up in class - good sign. #6 Millard’s Smile’s (5-1) last race was a prep for this one. Second-start and sprint-to-route are both strong angles for Eduardo Rodriguez.