Fair Grounds Early Pick 5 for Jan. 29: Pressing Up Skinny Tickets

January 29th, 2023

I always want to think about how much my payout will be relative to the cost of my bet. By getting skinny and fading three morning line favorites in the Early Pick 5 at Fair Grounds, I’ll dive into this pool with a minimal $6 ticket and I know if it hits, I’ll be rewarded by better odds than I could get expressing my opinions in another pool. I will press up by playing it multiple times. 

50-cent Pick 5 = $6 x 6 (we'll want this more than once) = $36

Race 1
3, 4, 6
Race 2
1 (1A), 4
Race 3
4, 7
Race 4
Race 5

Race 1, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Clm 5000B, 4-year-olds & up, fillies

Fading: #2 Whats Up Sweets (5-2) will likely go off as the favorite, and I can make cases for three others, so let’s fade her. 

#3 Izeonpoint (4-1) had a tough break losing position and shuffling to the rear last out. In the final furlong, she had run but was behind a wall of horses. Better trip, better result, and the price should be right. #4 Quinn Murphy (4-1) ran a strong Thoro-Graph figure last out for this level and could improve off that with the new trainer, or even running back to that could be enough. The price is right for the class-dropper #6 Abbey Lane (8-1) for Shane Wilson. Last outing was a prep for this, and Aubrie Green has been doing well with horses like this who need to break well and stay involved. 

Race 2, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Md 12500, 3-year-olds & up

Fading: We’ll fade the favorite in here, class-dropping #6 Madison Luvs Duke (6-5), who only figures to run back to his previous races at best. Three others in here stand to step forward, which would be enough to beat the Al Stall gelding. 

Don't be fooled by the margin of defeat last out for #1 Keep On (6-1), who faced a freak 24-length performance by the winner. A baby step forward between his first and second start, now the blinkers go off for #1A Summer Lover (6-1)’s third start, and one modest step forward is all he needs. #4 Spinstrawinto Gold (3-1) ran well on debut, posting an 18 Thoro-Graph figure, and his second start should put him in contention against these. 

Race 3, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Clm 12500B, 4-year-olds & up, state-breds

#4 Izzy’s Baby Boy (6-1) drops in class and stretches out for the always dangerous trainer Scott Gelner, who attracts "Mr. 2,000" Florent Geroux. Last out #6 War Count (7-2) got nailed at the wire by #7 Unanimously (5-2), and the track was speed favoring, so let’s keep with Unanimously who will make his third start in the form cycle. 

Race 4, 1 1/16 Miles, Clm 30000B, 4-year-olds & up, fillies

#4 Zing (2-1) faced tougher and ran well in her first effort in the form cycle. Now she drops in class. Blinkers went on two back, and this filly looks ready for her second win.

Race 5, 6 Furlongs, Alw 53000N4L, 4-year-olds & up, state-bred fillies

Fading: This is a two-horse race on the win end, and though #3 Rue La La (9-5) deserves our respect, so does another, who I believe will return to peak form today.

#6 Speedy Dudette (3-1) has put up some big performances, and trainer Joe Duhon said she needed that last one. Let’s single Speedy Dudette who should be back to business in here.