Fair odds for 150th Kentucky Derby (Feb. 9 edition)

February 9th, 2024

The Kentucky Derby (G1) points leaderboard is about to undergo some dramatic changes beginning next week with the first 50-points-to-the-winner prep, the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds. Before then, there will be some new additions following this Saturday's Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.

Therefore, the fair odds listed below is a mere snapshot of the top 20 domestic point earners as of Feb. 9.


Fierceness at Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Saratoga (Photo by Horsephotos)

Fierceness, 6-1

Last year's juvenile champion would have remained favored here if not for a shaky comeback in last week's Holy Bull (G3). Like a box of chocolates, we're never quite sure what version of Fierceness we're going to get.


Track Phantom wins at Churchill Downs

Track Phantom wins at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)

Track Phantom, 8-1

Earned back-to-back prep wins in the Gun Runner S. and Lecomte (G3), and is sure to be underrated again in the Risen Star.


Mystik Dan winning the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park (Photo by Coady Photography/Kurtis Coady)

Mystik Dan, 10-1

Dynamite winner of the Southwest (G3) last week, albeit over a muddy track. He'll need to show he can produce the same kind of effort over fast going.


Hades wins the Holy Bull (Photo by Coglianes Photography / Credit to Lauren King)

Hades, 20-1

Upset Fierceness in the Holy Bull to improve his record to 3-for-3. The race itself wasn't terribly fast from a figure perspective, so further improvement needed.


Uncle Heavy (left) winning the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct (Photo by Coglianese Photos/Joe Labozzetta)

Uncle Heavy (left) winning the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct (Photo by Coglianese Photos/Joe Labozzetta)

Uncle Heavy, 30-1

Made hard work of wearing down El Grande O in the Withers (G3), a race that doesn't generally yield top flight Derby contenders.


Locked (Photo by Coady Photography)

Locked, 5-1

Well-beaten third by stablemate Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup, but the Breeders' Futurity (G1) winner kind of assumes the role of modest favorite simply by not having been exposed this year. Rerouted elsewhere from the Sam F. Davis after coming down with a temperature last week.


Liberal Arts winning the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Photography)

Liberal Arts winning the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)

Liberal Arts, 30-1

Decent third in the Southwest returning from a long layoff. Must show more, and is another whose wet-track form predominates.


Timberlake (Photo by Coglianese Photography / Credit to Joe Labozzetta)

Timberlake, 15-1

Champagne (G1) winner didn't get a sniff in the Breeders' Cup, but he's eligible to improve this term. Another whose form has been mildly inconsistent.


Just Steel (inside) edging Be You in a Saratoga maiden special weight (Photo by Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher)

Just Steel (inside) edging Be You in a Saratoga maiden special weight (Photo by Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher)

Just Steel, 30-1

Grabbed place money in a pair of Oaklawn preps, though there's a case to be made he'd be more effective around one turn.


El Grande O (Photo by Coglianese Photography/Credited to Chelsea Durand)

El Grande O, 50-1

Couldn't quite last the nine furlongs of the Withers despite favorable off-track circumstances, and would be surprised if a longer distance suits.


Nash at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)

Nash, 30-1

Beaten twice now when favored over Track Phantom at Fair Grounds. Don't see him reversing that collateral form soon.


West Saratoga winning the 2023 Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)

West Saratoga winning the 2023 Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)

West Saratoga, 50-1

Well beaten in two starts following his upset score in the series-opening Iroquois. Will attempt to right the ship in Sam F. Davis.


Honor Marie winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)

Honor Marie winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)

Honor Marie, 8-1

Successful in a pair of starts at Churchill last fall, including the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Might need return in Risen Star, but not easily dismissed.


Otto the Conqueror defeating Glengarry in the Remington Springboard Mile S. at Remington Park (Photo by Dustin Orona Photography/Remington Park)

Otto the Conqueror defeating Glengarry in the Remington Springboard Mile S. at Remington Park (Photo by Dustin Orona Photography/Remington Park)

Otto the Conqueror, 50-1

Springboard Mile win was slow, and he backed out readily after setting the pace in the Southwest. Going the wrong direction.


Dornoch winning the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct (Photo by Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher)

Dornoch winning the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct (Photo by Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher)

Dornoch, 6-1

Game winner of the Remsen (G2), he's a full brother to last year's Derby winner Mage. Never worse than second in four starts so far.


Catching Freedom winning the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Photography)

Catching Freedom winning the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Photography)

Catching Freedom, 15-1

Solid victory in the Smarty Jones S. on New Year's Day, though that race is the least important of Oaklawn's four preps.


Domestic Product (Photo by Coglianese Photography)

Domestic Product, 20-1

Solid rebound in the Holy Bull following a modest try in the Remsen. Another step forward or two needed, but on his way.


Moonlight (Photo by Coglianese Photography)

Moonlight, 50-1

Distant fourth in the Remsen, which is turning into a productive prep. Still, others from that race have an advantage.


Informed Patriot breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)

Informed Patriot (Photo by Coady Photography)

Informed Patriot, 50-1

Placed in the Street Sense (G3) and Smarty Jones, but also filled the same slot against allowance foes in between those races.


Lightline wins at Horseshoe Indianapolis (Photo by Coady Photography)

Lightline, 30-1

Beaten favorite in the Withers perhaps not helped by the off going, but others from the Cox barn have stronger claims.