Fair odds for 150th Kentucky Derby (Feb. 9 edition)
The Kentucky Derby (G1) points leaderboard is about to undergo some dramatic changes beginning next week with the first 50-points-to-the-winner prep, the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds. Before then, there will be some new additions following this Saturday's Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.
Therefore, the fair odds listed below is a mere snapshot of the top 20 domestic point earners as of Feb. 9.
Last year's juvenile champion would have remained favored here if not for a shaky comeback in last week's Holy Bull (G3). Like a box of chocolates, we're never quite sure what version of Fierceness we're going to get.
Fierceness returns from his @BreedersCup Juvenile victory on Saturday at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull.— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 1, 2024
Click the link below to add him and all of @NTamm1215's 5️⃣ horses to follow from the Florida Road to @KentuckyDerby 150!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/rZFPPrKoSA pic.twitter.com/tr8Ps0Lz2e
Track Phantom, 8-1
Earned back-to-back prep wins in the Gun Runner S. and Lecomte (G3), and is sure to be underrated again in the Risen Star.
Mystik Dan, 10-1
Dynamite winner of the Southwest (G3) last week, albeit over a muddy track. He'll need to show he can produce the same kind of effort over fast going.
Upset Fierceness in the Holy Bull to improve his record to 3-for-3. The race itself wasn't terribly fast from a figure perspective, so further improvement needed.
Uncle Heavy, 30-1
Made hard work of wearing down El Grande O in the Withers (G3), a race that doesn't generally yield top flight Derby contenders.
Well-beaten third by stablemate Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup, but the Breeders' Futurity (G1) winner kind of assumes the role of modest favorite simply by not having been exposed this year. Rerouted elsewhere from the Sam F. Davis after coming down with a temperature last week.
Liberal Arts, 30-1
Decent third in the Southwest returning from a long layoff. Must show more, and is another whose wet-track form predominates.
Champagne (G1) winner didn't get a sniff in the Breeders' Cup, but he's eligible to improve this term. Another whose form has been mildly inconsistent.
Just Steel, 30-1
Grabbed place money in a pair of Oaklawn preps, though there's a case to be made he'd be more effective around one turn.
El Grande O, 50-1
Couldn't quite last the nine furlongs of the Withers despite favorable off-track circumstances, and would be surprised if a longer distance suits.
Beaten twice now when favored over Track Phantom at Fair Grounds. Don't see him reversing that collateral form soon.
Nash’s first race going 1 1/16 miles was a stunner. @TrustYourLuck includes him in his 5 horses to watch @fairgroundsnola on the Road to @KentuckyDerby 150.— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) December 16, 2023
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West Saratoga, 50-1
Well beaten in two starts following his upset score in the series-opening Iroquois. Will attempt to right the ship in Sam F. Davis.
Honor Marie, 8-1
Successful in a pair of starts at Churchill last fall, including the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Might need return in Risen Star, but not easily dismissed.
.@TrustYourLuck believes the long stretch run @fairgroundsnola will suit Honor Marie well and includes him in his 5 horses to watch in the Road to @KentuckyDerby 150.— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 14, 2024
Click the link below to add his Expert Stable!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/A3e0ZlfTUG pic.twitter.com/eZpi8k02SF
Otto the Conqueror, 50-1
Springboard Mile win was slow, and he backed out readily after setting the pace in the Southwest. Going the wrong direction.
Otto the Conqueror showed unwavering tenacity to win the Springboard Mile @RemingtonPark by 3/4s of a length, in the process joining the Road to the @KentuckyDerby.#KyDerby150 #PedigreeProfile#StableAlerts 📝 ⬇️ https://t.co/IwjoebS73u pic.twitter.com/GPlqcr0406— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) December 18, 2023
Game winner of the Remsen (G2), he's a full brother to last year's Derby winner Mage. Never worse than second in four starts so far.
Catching Freedom, 15-1
Solid victory in the Smarty Jones S. on New Year's Day, though that race is the least important of Oaklawn's four preps.
Domestic Product, 20-1
Solid rebound in the Holy Bull following a modest try in the Remsen. Another step forward or two needed, but on his way.
Distant fourth in the Remsen, which is turning into a productive prep. Still, others from that race have an advantage.
Beaten favorite in the Withers perhaps not helped by the off going, but others from the Cox barn have stronger claims.