Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem for Jan. 5, 2026

Jason discusses the turning of the calendar and the three-year-old series starting to heat up. 

A good Monday morning to you all, and a happy New Year to our Monday readers. I hope the new year brings you great prosperity and good health. With all the newly turned three-year-olds taking center stage this weekend, it does feel as though the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail and those conversations very much heat up once the calendar turns. 

To me, the Lecomte (G3) has always been the unofficial start of the Kentucky Derby trail. I realize points are garnered far before that, and of course, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) is always a major separator for the horses at two. But to me, the Lecomte always seemed like the time when horses started returning to kick off their three-year-old campaigns – horses who were good at two returning to the races as well as lightly-raced and later-developing types. 

Funny enough, I just looked up the Lecomte, and no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby after winning the Lecomte. (Future Derby winners War Emblem and Mandaloun were both beaten in the Lecomte.) However, I believe a couple of horses have won the Lecomte and the Preakness (G1) – Oxbow and War of Will – which is pretty good! 

I was most fond of Commandment’s win in the Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream Park this weekend in terms of the boys’ preps. Obviously, Dazzling Dame in the Busanda S. was the top performer for the three-year-old fillies, but that was the only stake for that division. 

Among the boys, we had Commandment at Gulfstream, Strategic Risk at Oaklawn in the Smarty Jones S., and My World in the Jerome S.

Strategic Risk looked very good; however, he was close up to a slow pace that was set by a 50-1 longshot, and then took off when roused to the lead. Impressive, for sure, but I do wonder if maybe the setup was quite good for him. Because he’s a Florida-bred, though, I’m quite excited to see if he moves forward. 

The Holy Bull (G3) also feels like a big early turning point race in the Derby trail because so often one of the best two-year-olds from the year prior seems to show up in it. A number of them got beaten at short prices over the years, and a few have won. 

There are always two times a year when I feel like horses get overbet based on hype. One is early in the year when the good two-year-olds return to the races. The other is after the Derby. 

In these early-year races, people are betting off two-year-old form from a few months before. There’s so much growth and change that happens during this time that so often I think other horses catch up to the really good two-year-olds. 

After the Derby, I think most of the horses from the Derby and the trail have built up such strong name recognition and rightly earned plaudits that people go to town on them strictly on name and what they’ve accomplished, even if it’s just hitting the board in some big races. 

It’s a fun and unique time of year. While just a couple of weeks ago it felt like the quiet season in horse racing, things have ramped up pretty quickly as we’ve entered 2026. Should be a fun little stretch here as we kick the prep season into gear.